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Fantasy Football Picks: 49ers vs. Seahawks DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the 49ers and the Seahawks with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

You know what? We’ve almost reached the point where I’d be uncomfortable if we didn’t have some sort of quarterback uncertainty heading into a Thursday night tilt. Thankfully, with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Seattle Seahawks, such a scenario was almost guaranteed. The Niners are already on their third starting QB of the season in Brock Purdy ($9,600; oblique), but he’s currently listed as questionable.

Will Purdy play? Does it even matter? Let’s break it all down.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF vs SEA)


Captain’s Picks

Christian McCaffrey ($17,100 CP) - It’s the chalk play. It’s the expensive play. Yet it’s the right play. Regardless of who starts under center for the 49ers on Thursday, McCaffrey should be the focal point of the offense. With the third-string Purdy on the field for a majority of the past two weeks, McCaffrey has shined, averaging 20.5 touches per game with a 76.9% snap share — a figure that would likely be higher if not for this past Sunday’s lopsided script. It hasn’t been empty volume, either. McCaffrey’s turned those opportunities into 299 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, which has translated into an eye-popping 30.5 DKFP per contest. In a vacuum, McCaffrey is an absolute stud, but the matchup is icing on the cake. Seahawks D/ST ($3,200) has been shaky all season long, ranking 26th against the run by DVOA. Seattle has also surrendered the second-most DKFP per game to opposing backfields. To put it simply: McCaffrey is going to eat.

DK Metcalf ($15,000 CP) - The Renaissance of Geno Smith ($10,600) has been great for many reasons, but chief among them is the success it’s brought to both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett ($10,200). In particular, Metcalf has been a fantasy force as of late, having scored the third-most DKFP of any wide receiver in football since Week 12 (67.8). In that span, Metcalf has seen 33 targets and scored a pair of touchdowns, perfectly showcasing the high-floor and high-ceiling combination the Ole Miss product brings to the table each week. Plus, though you wouldn’t necessarily think so, this is a pretty nice matchup for the wideout. 49ers D/ST ($5,000) is so good against the run — they rank second by DVOA — that it creates a funnel effect for most opponents. Teams have passed on 62.8% of offensive downs when playing San Francisco, the third-highest rate in the NFL. As such, the 49ers have conceded the 10th-most DKFP per game to opposing WRs. It’s all about that volume.

FLEX Plays

49ers D/ST ($5,000) - In the most basic terms, San Francisco’s defense is viable almost every single week; however, there’s a lot to like about this specific matchup. First and foremost, Seattle’s offensive line just isn’t very good. The unit has surrendered at least three sacks in four straight contests, while the Seahawks’ 9.1% adjusted sack rate for the season as a whole is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Seattle has also turned the ball over on 12.8% of their drives in 2022 — the sixth-highest rate in football. The 49ers’ defensive line is ferocious. Fred Warner is one of the smartest linebackers in the NFL. If ever there was a team that could take advantage of these flaws, it’s San Francisco.

Ray-Ray McCloud ($1,200) - As much as I love to spout my own idiotic opinions in this space, allow me to share a Kyle Shanahan quote from earlier this week: “Ray-Ray [McCloud] is a bulldog out there. He doesn’t think about his size.” That snippet was in reference to the similarities of McCloud and Deebo Samuel (knee/ankle), who has been ruled out for this Thursday’s festivities. Obviously, the two are very different players in both skill-set and reputation, yet it certainly seems like Shanahan has a fondness for McCloud and plans to use him against the Seahawks. Heck, McCloud logged 28 offensive snaps in last weekend’s victory over Tampa Bay, with most of those coming after Samuel had been carted off the field. Brandon Aiyuk ($8,800) and Jauan Jennings ($3,600) are much safer assets on this slate, but at a price point just over $1K, I’ll definitely have some serious exposure to McCloud.


Kenneth Walker III ($7,600) - Though Walker appears to be healthy — he does not carry an injury designation into Week 15 after missing last Sunday’s loss to Carolina — this is just a terrible spot. The 49ers have allowed the fewest DKFP per game to opposing RBs and, with only 19 receptions in 11 contests, Walker hasn’t really shown the ability to rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways. A lack of involvement in the passing attack is a major issue. San Francisco has yet to surrender even 60 rushing yards to an opposing back this season, while it is one of two teams to not allow a rushing touchdown in its past three games. Remember that funnel thing I was talking about? This is it.


If any team could withstand losing three starting quarterbacks in 15 weeks, it would be a Kyle Shanahan squad. Whether it’s Purdy or Josh Johnson ($9,000), I like the 49ers on Thursday evening. Seattle’s defense is awful, while San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in its last four games and 6-0 ATS in its past six division matchups.

Final Score: San Francisco 28, Seattle 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF vs SEA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.