Week 10. Seems just like yesterday when we were rejoicing the return of football, but all of a sudden, we have arrived to the present, to a league that has teams with a winning record at a baker’s dozen. There are four teams on bye this week: BAL, CIN, NE and NYJ. These teams are off the main slate: ATL, CAR, SEA, TB, LAC, SF, WAS and PHI.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there is only one game with a total of at least 50 points: KC/JAX (50.5). Two games have a total at 40 or below: NO/PIT (40) and DEN/TEN (38.5). There are no double-digit spreads but KC is favored by 9.5 points over JAX. Four games are within a field goal: Titans -2.5 over Broncos, Bears -3 over Lions, Saints -2.5 over Steelers and Rams -3 over Cardinals. There are two home dogs - the Steelers and Packers.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,900 — This is an interesting slate for the quarterback position. Justin Fields ($6,500) got priced up but is in a phenomenal matchup, so he will likely garner a ton of ownership. Josh Allen ($8,600) has injury concerns so Mahomes will likely be very highly owned as well. I like Mahomes a lot this week, which I will go over in a bit, but if the projected ownership comes in low on Allen, I will have to consult the Ouija board.
The Chiefs have the third-highest passing rate in the league. Duh, they have Mahomes. The Jaguars are 27th in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted sack rate. Yummy. On the season, Mahomes has exceeded points expectations 50% of the time and has gone for at least 24 DKFP in each of the last five games, with three of those over 30. Over the last six games, he’s rushed at least four times in five of those contests with a 6-for-63 yards performance last week. Konami code Mahomes!
Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,600), Justin Fields ($6,500), Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins, $5,400 — I know, I know. This is gross. Cleveland is 26th in passing rate and wants to run the ball. Duly noted. The thing is that the Dolphins are pretty good at defending the run, as they are 7th in rush-defense DVOA and 4th according to PFF. In addition, it’s within the range of outcomes that Miami puts up points in this one, forcing the Browns to tilt more toward the air.
Brissett has thrown more than one touchdown just once this season and has yet to reach 300 yards, but if he’s forced to chase points and the play-calling tilts more toward the air, then both are viable outcomes. Back in 2019, as a starter for the Colts, he threw at least three touchdowns and went over 300 yards in three games. Sure, different situation, but at least it’s comforting to know that it’s in the bag.
Brissett has a little rushing equity as well, as he’s scored twice on the ground this season and has rushed 31 times for 142 yards.
Other Options – Jared Goff ($5,500)
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs, Houston Texans, $8,600 — The Giants are coming off their bye, are 5-point favorites at home and the offense is centered around Barkley. The Giants are 29th in passing rate and Barkley gets over 80% of the snaps. Oh, I forgot to mention: the Texans are dead-last in rush-defense DVOA. Keep. It. Simple. Stupid.
Other Options – Travis Etienne ($7,100)
Value
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans at New York Giants, $6,300 – It’s early in the week as I’m writing this and Pierce looks like he will be the highest-rostered running back on the slate, by a wide margin. Decisions, decisions. If that dynamic remains, then I will look at other players or different roster constructions to fade. We shall see.
The matchup on the ground isn’t a bad one, as the Giants are 24th in rush-defense DVOA. They have allowed the fewest receptions to the position, though.
The workload and production have been undeniable for Pierce, as he’s exceeded points expectations 80% of the time this season and is coming off a 27-carry, 139-yard performance. On the season, he’s received over 20 carries four times, exceeded 100 yards rushing twice and scored four touchdowns. He’s also caught 20 of 25 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – Jamaal Williams ($5,900), Tony Pollard ($6,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns, $9,100 — Hill has caught 76 of 100 targets for 1,104 yards and three touchdowns this season. He’s played nine games! Really not much to say here. The Dolphins pass at the eighth-highest rate and Hill is the alpha of the receiving group. He’s gone over 30 DKFP four times with a high of 45.
Other Options – Amari Cooper ($6,500), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000)
Value
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins, $4,300 – Well, if I think there’s a chance that Brissett could see an elevated pass rate in this one, then it only makes sense to highlight his receivers as well. DPJ actually leads the team in snap count on the season and is on the field over 90% of the time. Can’t score fantasy goodies if you’re on the sideline.
As for targets, he’s way behind Amari Cooper ($6,500) in that department, but that’s okay. There’s a reason why he is priced where he is. DPJ has received 4, 6, 5, 7 and 9 targets over the last five games and has five red zone targets on the season.
Other Options – Rondale Moore ($5,200), Darnell Mooney ($5,500), Alec Pierce ($4,100)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,800 – The tight end position has been barren up at the top for a few weeks now. The world is healing, as Kelce is back on the slate. I like Mahomes in this matchup and Kelce is his favorite boo. He’s coming off a game in which he received a whopping 17 targets, which he converted into 10 receptions for 106 yards. Kelce has received at least seven targets in every game with three over 10. He’s gone over 100 yards receiving three times and has scored seven touchdowns on the season. Granted, he had four touchdowns in one game, but that just shows the silly upside.
The Jaguars are dead-last in DVOA against tight ends this season.
Value
Greg Dulcich ($3,400), Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans – Over the last three weeks, Dulcich has played in 71%, 59% and 80% of the snaps. He’s received 3, 9 and 5 targets over that span and leads all Broncos tight ends in targets on the season, despite playing in only three games.
Other Options – Evan Engram ($3,300), Tyler Higbee ($3,600), Cole Kmet ($3,400)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Chiefs DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,400 – There’s a good chance that the Chiefs put up some points in this one. If that happens, then the Jaguars will be forced to be more aggressive and fantasy goodies could rain down from the heavens. The Chiefs blitz at the ninth-highest rate and Lawrence is one of the worst quarterbacks when under pressure. According to PFF, he has a 28.6 grade when under pressure. Only four other quarterbacks have a worse rating: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Taylor Heinicke and Kyler Murray.
Other Options – Saints D/ST ($3,500), Titans D/ST ($3,200)
Value
Cardinals DST at Los Angeles Rams, $2,700 – The Cardinals have been very good against No. 1 receivers over the years, and they’ve had success against Cooper Kupp ($9,000). Kupp has exceeded 100 yards only once in his career against the Cardinals. In the Week 3 matchup this season, Kupp caught 4-of-6 targets for 44 yards.
Arizona blitzes at the second-highest rate and the Rams have had issues in protection this season. The unit only had 4 DKFP in the Week 3 matchup, notching a sack and recovering a fumble, but they did hold the Rams to 20 points and a double-digit DKFP performance is well within the range of outcomes, something the unit has accomplished three times this season.
Other Options – Vikings DST ($2,200)—if Josh Allen doesn’t play.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.