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Fantasy Football Picks: Ravens vs. Saints DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Ravens and the Saints with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Are the Baltimore Ravens cursed? Injuries were a big part of the team’s overall disappointment last season, and things haven’t been much better in 2022. J.K. Dobbins (knee) has been on and off the IR. We found out this week that Rashod Bateman (foot) is done for the remainder of the year. Gus Edwards ($7,400; hamstring) is doubtful for tonight’s contest and Mark Andrews (knee/shoulder) has already been ruled out. Cursed might be an understatement, actually.

Can the New Orleans Saints take advantage? Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (BAL vs NO)


Captain’s Picks

Lamar Jackson ($18,600 CP) - It’s a hefty price, but considering the amount of value available on the Ravens’ roster this evening, it’s a price I’m willing to pay. What else can be said of Jackson at this point? Thanks primarily to his position-leading 553 rushing yards, the former MVP enters Monday’s matchup with New Orleans averaging an NFL-best 0.72 DKFP per drop back. It is concerning that Jackson is missing so many of his top weapons; however, in Week 8, the QB did manage 21.8 DKFP while only getting 10 offensive snaps from Andrews and 13 from Bateman. With a full week of practice with new receivers and in a domed environment, I’m still enticed by Jackson’s 40 DKFP upside.

Chris Olave ($12,900 CP) - Even if Jarvis Landry ($5,200; ankle) is able to play through a questionable tag this week, Olave will remain the Saints’ No. 1 target. The rookie wideout has seen a target rate well over 25% across his past six games — and these have been far from empty opportunities. Not only does Olave sport an eye-popping aDOT of 16.2 yards, which has translated to a team-high 38% air yards share, but the 22-year-old leads all New Orleans WRs in red zone targets. If that’s not high leverage, I’m not sure what is. Also, while the statistics on the Ravens’ secondary are still skewed from their loss to Miami, Baltimore has surrendered the fourth-most DKFP per contest to opposing receivers. At least on paper, this is a fantastic matchup for Olave.

FLEX Plays

Taysom Hill ($6,400) - Generally, I am not a fan of utilizing Hill on Showdown slates. However, the circumstances surrounding the “QB” have changed so much in recent seasons, that I’m starting to come around to his appeal. Aside from Alvin Kamara ($11,400) and Olave, it’s hard to know who is going to be featured in this Saints attack. Injuries at the skill positions have obviously impacted this, yet assets like Rashid Shaheed ($5,000), Marquez Callaway ($4,600) and Juwan Johnson ($4,400) have virtually no floor. Meanwhile, we have a pretty decent idea of how Hill will be used on a week-to-week basis. He’s locked into roughly 10 touches and often times those opportunities are close to the goal line. Seven of his 39 rushing attempts have been in the red zone. 25% of his targets have been inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. If you’re looking at New Orleans’ players in this price range, Hill’s your guy.

DeSean Jackson ($200) - Listening to John Harbaugh this week, it seems like Jackson being activated for Monday night is a near certainty. Obviously assets like Isaiah Likely ($5,800) and James Proche ($3,800) in the mid-tier are safer options in DFS, but if Jackson is truly available — and especially if Demarcus Robinson ($5,600; groin) is unable to suit up — I’m going to have some exposure to the veteran wideout. Let’s put it this way: Jackson isn’t dressing to stand on the sideline. He might only be limited to 20-25 snaps, yet he’ll only need a couple of targets to bring back massive value at the bare minimum. Jackson also averaged 22.7 yards per reception and a career-high 13.4 yards per target in 2021. I don’t think he’s completely washed.


Kenyan Drake ($7,200) - I’m underwhelmed by Drake. In theory, he should have a serious role on Monday night, with Edwards and Dobbins sidelined. However, in Week 1 and Week 2, in the exact same circumstances, Drake averaged 3.2 DKFP and 19.5 rushing yards per contest. The Ravens have always been apathetic about involving their RBs in the passing game under Greg Roman, which tends to make the position very touchdown dependant. That’s an issue on its own, let alone when you’re playing beside a runner as talented as Jackson. Add in that Saints D/ST ($3,600) is allowing a paltry 83.3 opponent rushing yards per contest going back to Week 6 — the fourth-lowest mark in the league — and I’m skeptical that Drake makes all that large an impact.


I can’t quit the Ravens. No matter how many skill-position players they lose, no matter how many fourth quarter leads they blow, I still think they’re the third-best team in the AFC and a borderline top five squad in the NFL. I mean, they entered Week 9 ranked fourth in overall DVOA. That’s pretty encouraging. They’ll be 6-3 by the final whistle.

Final Score: Baltimore 27, New Orleans 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (BAL vs NO)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.