Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 13

Week 13. It’s time to crush all the competitors, especially the machines who pump out an obscene number of lineups. Even those that are unforeseen. With no more quarantine, go out, take a walk, then enjoy a fine cuisine, as the knowledge dropped below hopefully provides tons of green. You know what I mean?

Arizona and Carolina are on bye.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 50 points: JAX/DET (51.5), KC/CIN (53) and LAC/LV (50.5). Two games have a total at 40 or below: DEN/BAL (38.5) and WAS/NYG (400.5). There are no double-digit spreads but the Ravens are favored by 8.5 points vs. the Broncos. Six games are within a field goal: Vikings -3 vs. Jets, Commanders -2.5 vs. Giants, Jaguars -1 vs. Lions, Falcons -1 vs. Steelers, Chiefs -1.5 vs. Bengals and Chargers -1.5 vs. Raiders. There are seven home dogs: Giants, Texans, Lions, Bears, Rams, Bengals and Raiders.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

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Quarterback

Stud

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, $7,200 — The Chargers have been hit with a rash of injuries all season. As a result, Herbert has thrown fewer than two touchdowns in five games while going under 250 yards in four games. Over the last two contests, though, he’s put up 280 and 274 yards while throwing two and three touchdowns, respectively. His main boo, Keenan Allen ($6,500), has played in both of those games. That’s translated to 28.76 and 20.7 DKFP. Prior to that, Herbert put up fewer than 20 DKFP in five of seven games. I usually lean towards not believing in coincidences.

Now he gets a matchup against a Raiders team that is dead-last in pass defense DVOA and 29th in adjusted sack rate. These teams faced in the opener, and Herbert went 26 of 34 for 279 yards and three touchdowns, good for 23.26 DKFP. The total is a healthy 50.5 for this game, and the Chargers are favored by 1.5 points on the road.

Other Options – Joe Burrow ($6,900)

Value

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,300 — I know, I know, this is gross, but hear me out. This game has the second-highest total on the slate, and the path of least resistance for the Lions is through the air. The Jaguars are decent at defending the run — 13th in rush defense DVOA — while being 30th in pass defense. Jacksonville is also dead-last in adjusted sack rate.

The Jaguars shouldn’t have too much difficulty putting up points themselves, as Detroit is 19th in pass defense DVOA but only 26th in rush defense. As a result, Detroit will maintain aggression if the game calls for it.

Goff has exceeded 20 DKFP only once in the last seven games and has exceeded the mark only three times this season. He does have a 37.22-DKFP performance on the resume, though, in a 45-48 loss vs. the Seahawks in Week 4 when he went 26 of 39 for 378 yards and four touchdowns.

Other Options – Trevor Lawrence ($5,900), Mike White ($5,400)

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Running Back

Stud

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $7,900 — Jacobs is coming off a 33-carry game, in which he totaled 229 yards, two touchdowns and a gallop-off run of 86 yards in overtime. Once he beat the safety, I wanted him to run into the tunnel a la Bo Jackson. Oh well.

Jacobs has put up 51.3, 22 and 22.6 DKFP over the last three games. Prior to that, he went for over 30 DKFP in weeks 4 through 6. He’s received at least 20 carries in six contests. On the season, he has 48 targets and 29 red zone opportunities.

Translation: He’s been a bell cow and will continue to be so. Will the Raiders shell out the money for him in the offseason? I highly doubt it, but that’s a conversation for another day.

The Chargers are 29th in rush defense DVOA and have gotten gashed all season on the ground. When these teams met in the opener, Jacobs rushed only 10 times for 57 yards. I do not foresee deja vu.

Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($8,500), Nick Chubb ($8,000), Christian McCaffrey ($8,600), Aaron Jones ($6,900)

Value

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers, $6,200 – Since Khalil Herbert succumbed to injury, Montgomery has played in 80% and 68% of the snaps. Last week, he lost a few snaps due to the blowout nature of the game. That said, he still received four targets. Montgomery isn’t the most explosive back and won’t be breaking off too many highlight runs. He’s rushed over 100 yards just once in a game this season, and the opponent was Green Bay.

The Packers are dead-last in rush defense DVOA and just allowed Miles Sanders ($6,300) to rush 21 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns last week.

Other Options – Dameon Pierce ($5,900), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), Najee Harris ($6,100), Brian Robinson ($5,300), Antonio Gibson ($5,200)

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Wide Receiver

Stud

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $8,700 — Adams caught 10 of 17 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown in the opener vs. the Chargers. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, as Jacobs should be more involved this time around. That said, the Raiders offense is concentrated between Adams and Jacobs, so both could thrive — although it’s unlikely both can have ceiling outcomes.

Over the last four games, Adams has received 11, 13, 14 and 17 targets. He’s gone over 100 yards in three of those contests and scored five touchdowns, with two of those games being multi-touchdown performances. That translated to 14.4, 36.1, 30.6 and 39.6 DKFP, respectively. Over that span, Jacobs put up 51.3, 22, 22.6 and 11.7 DKFP, respectively.

Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100), Christian Kirk ($6,300), Tee Higgins ($7,200), Keenan Allen ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,400), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)

Value

DeAndre Carter, Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, $3,900 – If Mike Williams ($5,900) returns to action, then this play will be no good. With Williams out, Carter has played in at least 80% of the snaps every game. Over that span, he’s received six, four, three and 10 targets while posting 73, 33, 64 and 53 yards, respectively. Nothing to get excited about, but he has scored two touchdowns. I like Herbert and the Chargers passing attack this Sunday, so I have interest in any of the aerial pieces.

Other Options – Garrett Wilson ($5,300), Joshua Palmer ($5,600), Zay Jones ($4,900), Christian Watson ($5,200)

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Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals, $7,900 – Kelce is a top-tier wide receiver dressed in tight end clothing. He has 102 targets on the season. Only six other players have more. For perspective, Davante Adams leads the league with 123 targets while Tyreek Hill has 115. Kelce has received at least seven targets in every game this season, going for more than 10 four times with a high of 17. He’s scored in three consecutive games and has games with three and four touchdowns. The floor/ceiling combo is unmatched at the position.

Other Options – Mark Andrews ($6,600), George Kittle ($5,000)

Value

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders at New York Giants, $2,900 – Thomas received only three targets last week while John Bates ($2,600) got four, and more importantly, two red-zone looks to zero for Thomas. Those were the first red-zone looks for Bates on the season, though. Thomas is still out-snapping Bates by around 55-70%.

The Giants have had difficulty defending the tight end position this season. They are dead-last in DVOA against the position and allowed the 10th-most receptions, seventh-most yards and four touchdowns on the season.

Other Options – John Bates ($2,600), Foster Moreau ($3,600), Hayden Hurst ($3,500)

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Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Ravens DST vs. Denver Broncos, $4,000 – The Broncos have scored fewer than 20 points nine times this season. Their high on the season is 23 points. They are 24th in protecting the quarterback while Baltimore is sixth in adjusted sack rate. The Ravens D/ST has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season, scoring double-digits five times. The unit has racked up 35 sacks, eight fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions and scored one touchdown. “Broncos Nation! Let’s hide.”

Value

Commanders DST at New York Giants, $3,300 – The Giants want to run the ball and limit the passing attempts for Daniel Jones ($5,500). Well, Washington is fourth in rush defense DVOA, so they may find that path a difficult one to travel down. Jones has only thrown four interceptions on the season, but he’s been sacked 33 times — the third-most in the NFL. Washington is 14th in adjusted sack rate and has 31 sacks on the season. They have scored double-digits three times this season and held opponents to under 20 points four times.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.