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We are about to get inundated with Santa’s elves, but not before we delve into the slate for Week 12. May all the players you select on Sunday excel, and propel you to the top of the leaderboards so your bankroll can swell. Farewell, and also fare well.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 45 points: HOU/MIA (46.5), LV/SEA (47.5) and LAC/ARI (47.5). Two games have a total at 40 or below: NYJ/CHI (39.5) and DEN/CAR (35). There are two double-digit spreads: the Dolphins -13.5 over the Texans and the Chiefs -14.5 over the Rams. Three games are within a field goal: Bengals -1.5 over the Titans, Broncos -2.5 over the Panthers and Bucs -3 over the Browns. There are five home dogs: the Jaguars, Titans, Panthers, Browns and Cardinals.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams, $8,200 — I’m very curious to see where the ownership comes in on Mahomes. Will he get overlooked due to the price tag and 14.5-point spread in favor of Kansas City? There are also two games with totals of 47 with spreads of 3.5 and 4 points. I’m thinking Mahomes may get overlooked a bit. We shall see.
Anyway, I hope he does because I like Mahomes a lot this week. And I’m not scared about the huge spread, because if the Chiefs score points in this one, it will likely be through the air. Kansas City is fifth in passing rate and Los Angeles is 26th in pass-defense DVOA while ranking 5th in rush defense.
Mahomes has scored over 30 DKFP in five of his last six contests and has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. In the two games that the Chiefs won by over two touchdowns, Mahomes put up 37.9 and 30.92 DKFP.
Other Options – Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900)
Value
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $6,000 — Smith has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time this season, despite the Seahawks ranking 18th in passing rate. There is a chance that the running game dominates, but the path of least resistance against the Raiders is through the air, as they are dead last in pass-defense DVOA. Smith has scored at least 20 DKFP in each of the last two games and has a high of 34.7 on the season.
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Running Back
Stud
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks, $7,700 — This game has a healthy total of 47 points, so points should be scored in this one. Especially on the road in a hostile environment, Las Vegas would be well-served to lean on Jacobs. He’s exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season and has five games with at least 20 carries, with two of those in the most recent contests. In those five contests, he went over 20 DKFP in all with three of those over 30.
Jacobs isn’t a zero in the passing game, as he’s received 41 targets on the season. He also has 24 red zone carries. Seattle has allowed the second-most goal-to-go carries.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($8,500), Derrick Henry ($8,300), Kenneth Walker III ($6,900),
Value
Jeff Wilson, Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans, $5,900 – Houston is 31st in rush-defense DVOA. Ruh roh. Miami is also favored by a whopping 13.5 points at home. There should be plenty of the rushing attack in this one and Wilson received 61% of the snaps in his second game with Miami. He rushed 17 times for 119 yards and a touchdown while receiving five targets in the passing game and three red zone carries.
Other Options – Samaje Perine ($5,600), Antonio Gibson ($5,400), Rachaad White ($5,100)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks, $8,600 — Over the last three games, Adams has been on god mode. He’s received 13, 14 and 17 targets, turning those into 141, 126 and 146 yards with 2, 1 and 2 touchdowns. Seattle is 18th in pass-defense DVOA and this game has the highest total on the slate at 47.
Other Options – DK Metcalf ($6,500), Tyler Lockett ($6,200), Chris Godwin ($6,000), Mike Evans ($6,700)
Value
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams, $3,000 – Kadarius Toney injured his hamstring last week and is uncertain for Week 12. Moore received six targets last week and played in 42% of the snaps. The path of least resistance against the Rams is via the air and Moore should get plenty of opportunities to make plays. At the stone minimum, the risk/reward is favorable.
Other Options – Garrett Wilson ($4,300), Treylon Burks ($4,200)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams, $7,700 – Well, if I like Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack, then I better include Kelce into the mix. He leads the team with 94 targets and has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in seven contests and is coming off a 38.5 DKFP performance last week.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($6,500)
Value
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $3,200 – Fant splits the tight end duties with Will Dissly ($2,900) and has a total of 38 targets on the season. Yuck. He has received four and six targets over the last two weeks, though, and has a fantastic matchup in Week 12. The Raiders have allowed the second-most receptions, the most yards and seventh-most red zone targets to the position.
Other Options – Hayden Hurst ($3,300), Foster Moreau ($3,400)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Dolphins DST vs. Houston Texans, $3,900 – Visiting teams always find it difficult playing in Miami due to the heat and humidity. The forecast is for temperatures to be in the mid-80s on Sunday. It’s not just the weather that the Texans have to contend with, though. Miami has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and is favored by 13.5 points. The defense blitzes at the seventh-highest rate and they should have plenty of chances to rack up those fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Jets DST ($3,300), Ravens DST ($3,700)
Value
Chiefs DST vs. Los Angeles Rams, $2,800 – Matthew Stafford is unlikely to play due to a concussion and the spread of 14.5 points indicates that reality. The Chiefs are implied to score 29.5 points so the Rams will be chasing points, which means more dropbacks and more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. In addition, that Arrowhead crowd is going to make life difficult for whoever is under center.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.