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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 11 2022 Top High-Upside DFS Contrarian Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate for Week 11. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate, and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.

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Game Stack: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Burrow ($6,700) — Tee Higgins ($7,100) — Tyler Boyd ($6,500) — George Pickens ($5,200)

Burrow’s last couple of games haven’t yielded much from a fantasy perspective, but that’s only going to keep his rostership lower this week against a shoddy Steelers secondary. QBs against Pittsburgh are averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last three weeks, and Burrow should have some revenge on his mind after a Week 1 loss vs. the Steelers saw him turn the ball over five times.

Burrow’s upside is also intrinsically linked to his two main wide outs, which makes this an ideal stack considering the Steelers’ weakness against the position. Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and an astounding 15.05 yards per reception to the position, as well. This is a great spot for Higgins to put in a ceiling game, having dominated this matchup in the past by averaging 4.5 receptions, 71.8 yards and 0.5 TDs in four career games vs. the Steelers (a span which incudes two games with 100-plus yards and a TD). Higgins hasn’t broke out yet with Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup but has out-targeted Boyd 14-11 the last two games and remains the clear WR1 in this offense until Chase returns.

If we want to make this a true game stack, then adding in both the aforementioned Boyd and the Steelers’ George Pickens makes sense, as well. Boyd has produced under 50 yards in the last two games, which should keep his rostership lower. He’s proven to be far more of a big-play option this season for fantasy purposes and comes in with a 9.7 aDOT, which is a full two yards higher than last season. The weak Steelers secondary makes a Bengals double-WR stack more than viable for GPPs and could also lead to some superb garbage time on the other side for Pickens, who will be going up against a Bengals secondary that recently lost CB Chidobe Awuzie for the season. Pickens has an elite aDOT himself at 13.4 yards and is in a good spot to pay off against a Bengals defense that has regressed of late, allowing 8.4 yards per reception and three TDs to the WR position over the last three games.


Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears ($5,500)

Mariota enters Week 11 as the star of an elite new meme thanks to a rolling-off-the-back throw he made late in the game last Thursday night. Despite the poor optics from that play, Mariota has maintained solid fantasy numbers, going for over 18 DKFP three times in his last five starts. The Bears have also been solid opponents for rushing QBs, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to date to the position, and they recently gave up 34 yards and a TD on the ground to Dak Prescott ($6,600) — a season high in that department for him.

The Bears’ increased offensive output has also made the pace of their games faster. That’s led to more Justin Fields ($7,600) points, but also more points for opposing QBs, who have averaged 262 yards and two TDs vs. Chicago over the last three games. A full $2,100 cheaper than Fields (who will likely push for top rostership at QB on the slate), Mariota sets up as a solid contrarian play in Week 11 — a player whose salary will allow you to stack studs at both RB and WR.

Running Back

Top End: D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions at New York Giants ($6,100)

Swift is the ultimate risk-reward play this week. The Lions RB has been beleaguered by injuries all season, and he comes into this game having produced just 16 yards rushing on eight carries over the last two games. There’s no doubt Swift has been playing through injuries, but he did finally come off the injury report this week and logged a full practice this Wednesday. Combine that with news that Jamaal Williams (illness) was held out on Wednesday and perhaps we have a situation where Swift makes a dramatic return to the player who totaled 175 yards and a TD vs. Philadelphia in Week 1. To add to the intrigue, the Giants rank 10th last in DVOA against the rush and have allowed four 100-yard rushers this year, making them a great opponent. Swift is beyond risky, but with improved health, a solid matchup and potential low ownership, he makes for a great GPP target in Week 11.

Value: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders at Houston Texans ($5,300)

The Commanders face off vs. the Texans this week — a team that ranks out second-worst in rush DVOA and has allowed 5.2 yards per rush this season (third-worst in the league). This sets up extremely well for a big day from Robinson, who dominated the early down work vs. the Eagles last week, taking 26 carries to Antonio Gibson’s 14. The lack of passing game involvement for Robinson makes him a tricky week-to-week proposition. But between Washington rushing the ball 40 times last week and the Commanders being matched up against a far worse rush defense, the upside for a multi-score game this week is quite real. Robinson is trending well in snap count and red-zone usage, and he should show improved efficiency vs. Houston. He’s a solid pay-down target for GPPs with elite upside this week.

Wide Receiver

Top End: DJ Moore Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens ($5,700)

Despite an inconsistent season, Moore remains the true WR1 in Carolina and enters this game an elite 27.1% team target share — ninth-best in the NFL. While he was a dud in the Week 10 game vs. Atlanta, the Panthers got out to a surprising lead and only threw the ball 16 times in the 25-15 win. That game log won’t be repeated this week vs. Baltimore, a team whose opponents are averaging 37.6 pass attempts per game. Moore will be getting a QB change, but Baker Mayfield ($5,000) encouragingly completed 70% of his passes in a Week 9 reliever role and is familiar with the Ravens from his days in the AFC North. Baltimore’s secondary has allowed the fifth-most receptions to the WR position this year, putting Moore in a good spot this week to potentially break out and become the value play of the slate at under $6,000.

Top Value: Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons ($5,400)

Mooney enters this game having exceeded 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. Furthermore, while Chase Claypool ($4,800) has siphoned away some targets, Mooney’s usage with Claypool has remained steady — he’s out-targeted Claypool 12-8 in the last two games while also receiving four red-zone targets over that span (to Claypool’s zero). Mooney’s 27% team target share is still 10th-best in the NFL, and he’ll be going up against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the most yards and receptions to his position this year. With TE Cole Kmet ($4,100) drawing more attention due to his recent TD surge, using Mooney with Fields as a leverage stack in Week 11 looks like a savvy way to create lineups and get good exposure to the Chicago-Atlanta game.

Tight End

Tanner Hudson, New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions ($2,900)

The Giants’ TE position is one to watch this week as Daniel Bellinger ($3,200 - eye) remains questionable and may not get clearance to return. If Bellinger does play, he'd be a savvy target on his own at just over $3,000 in a game against a Lions defense that has allowed the most TDs (7) and third-most fantasy points per game to the TE position. Last week saw third-stringer Lawrence Cager ($2,500) catch a TD pass, but it was Hudson who led the Giants’ TE corps with three targets and three catches — marks that actually tied for the team lead in those categories, as well.

Hudson’s snap rate went way down last week, but that was likely a product of game flow (New York was ahead all game), and he’s encouragingly been running passing routes on a high percentage of his snaps the last couple of weeks. The former Buccaneer has a career 13.7 yards per reception mark and is second on the Giants in overall targets over their last two games. The Lions offense has averaged 24.5 points per game over their last three outings and should push Daniel Jones ($5,700) into more drop backs, which would be great for Hudson’s usage. Watch how this situation plays out, but if Bellinger sits again, looking to Hudson as your near-the-min punt play for TE this week (a position which has a ton of injuries attached to it) could pay good dividends.

Defense/Special Teams

New York Jets ($2,800) at New England Patriots

While it’s always fun to pay the min-priced plays at DST (and ride the variance of defensive TDs), the Jets do look like good value at just $2,800 this week, and they’re a team you should be fine paying up in tournaments. New York enters this game with an elite pressure rate while ranking fifth in the league in sacks per game over the last three weeks. The Jets also have a superb matchup, as they enter ranked top 10 in pass and rush DVOA, and they will be taking on a Patriots team that ranks fifth last in pass DVOA (via Football Outsiders).

Patriots QB Mac Jones ($5,100) enters with just a four TD to seven INT ratio on the season and has turned the ball over in all but one start this year. This game will also be played in cooler temperatures (below 40 degrees Fahrenheit) with winds that may push over 15 mph. It’s ideal conditions for a defensive, lower-scoring game to play out, where New York’s defense can press its advantage against an immobile and turnover-prone QB. Take the solid price available on the Jets, who looked primed to push for the highest-scoring team at their position.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.