Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 11

Week 11. Time to forget about last week’s DFS transgressions. A new week to satisfy our fantasy obsession, to watch grown men throw, catch, run and tackle for a profession. Another session to possibly vault us to financial heaven. Oh, Lordy. Now I sound like a crypto influencer right before the FTX Armageddon. May your picks be good and the profits be more robust than the balance sheet of Chevron.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 45 points: DET/NYG (45.5), CHI/ATL (50) and DAL/MIN (47.5). Three games have a total at 40 or below: NYJ/NE (38.5), WAS/HOU (40.5) and LAR/NO (38.5). There is one double-digit spread: Ravens -12.5 vs. the Panthers. Five games are within a field goal: Patriots -3 vs. the Jets, Giants -3 vs. the Lions, Falcons -3 vs.the Bears, Broncos -3 vs. Raiders and Cowboys -1.5 vs. Vikings. There are four home dogs: the Steelers, Vikings, Texans and Colts.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

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Quarterback

Stud

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, $7,600 — It’s truly amazing how illogical some NFL decision makers are. This is why Bill Belichick gets elevated to genius status. He does the logical more often than not: Do what your team and players do well while attacking weaknesses. Matt Nagy tried to make Fields a pocket quarterback. He gone. Luke Getsy has actually tailored the offense around Fields, and what do you know? He’s absolutely balling out. Shocking.

Over the last four games, Fields has gone for 24.36, 26.04, 45.72 and 43.38 DKFP despite exceeding 25 passes just once. He has thrown multiple touchdowns three times in that span, but where Fields has tilled the most vegetation has been on the ground, rushing 13, 15, 8 and 14 times for 147, 178, 60 and 82 yards, respectively. Getsy has been calling a plethora of designed quarterback runs. Hey, let’s do more of what our guy is good at. That seems like a good idea. Fields has scored a rushing touchdown in each of those games and ran in two last week.

Now he gets a Falcons defense that is 25th in rush-defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense. And the game is indoor on the fast turf.

His price has spiked from $5,300 just two weeks ago and the rostership will likely be robust, so decisions will need to be made.

Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,500), Lamar Jackson ($8,400), Jalen Hurts ($8,200)

Value

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears, $5,500 —This game has the highest total on the slate! What a time to be alive. I can envision scenarios in which the running games dominate and slow things down, but that is something I will leave for meditation later in the week. As of now, this looks to be a juicy environment.

The Falcons are porous on defense but so are Bears. Chicago is 26th in rush-defense DVOA while being 30th in pass defense. The Bears have seen the fourth-most rushes by quarterback, have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and are tied with allowing the most rushing touchdowns with four.

Mariota doesn’t want to pass and has three games with fewer than 20 pass attempts. While the rushing attempts aren’t as robust compared to Fields, he does have one game with 12 rushes and eight games with at least five carries. Mariota has exceeded 20 DKFP three times this season.

Other Options – Daniel Jones ($5,700)

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Running Back

Stud

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs, Detroit Lions, $8,900 — Barkley is the most expensive running back on the slate — by a significant margin. And for good reason. He dominates the snaps for New York and is involved in all facets of the offensive game plan. He’s coming off a 35-carry game and gets another plush matchup this week, as Detroit is 27th in rush-defense DVOA.

Barkley has scored double-digit DKFP in every game this season, with five over 20 and a high of 36.4. He has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time.

Other Options – Josh Jacobs ($7,500)

Value

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders at Houston Texans, $5,600 – Houston has a problem defending the run, as they are 31st in DVOA. Washington is favored by 3.5 points on the road, so this looks like a great spot for the Commanders rushing attack. The tricky thing is the workload is split.

Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300) rushed 26 times for 86 yards last week and scored a touchdown. Gibson only received 14 carries, which he turned into 44 yards and a touchdown. My initial inclination was to go with Robinson but I am going with Gibson despite the lower rushing volume.

Robinson is a zero in the passing game while Gibson is soaking up all that work. The differentiator is the red-zone work. Robinson received four red-zone carries while Gibson had five.

If there’s a massive discrepancy in rostership between the two backs, then I will side with the lower-rostered player.

Other Options – Devin Singletary ($5,800), Kenyan Drake ($5,900)

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Wide Receiver

Stud

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys, $9,100 — I initially bypassed Jefferson due to the price and matchup. Dallas is fourth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. Then I looked at my right hand and proceeded to slap my face multiple times.

Jefferson has exceeded points expectations 50% this season and has only one game with fewer than eight targets. He’s received double-digit targets and exceeded 100 yards receiving in six contests. Plus, have you seen the unbelievable catches Jefferson hauls in? Wes Phillips does an excellent job of moving Jefferson around the formation and puts him in positions to succeed.

Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($8,300), CeeDee Lamb ($7,500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200), Davante Adams ($8,700)

Value

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders at Houston Texans, $5,900 – Since Taylor Heinicke ($5,300) took over at quarterback, McLaurin has received eight, eight, nine and 11 targets. He’s exceeded 100 yards receiving twice and scored one touchdown. Houston is 25th in pass-defense DVOA and is 31st against No. 1 receivers.

Other Options – Ben Skowronek ($3,900)

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Tight End

Stud

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,800 – Andrews is returning from injury and is still questionable, so stay on top of the news. He’s had two rough games, scoring 6.3 and 0.4 DKFP. One was due to injury, and the other was the Browns limiting him to zero catches on two targets. I’m not sure the Panthers can replicate that effort, and hopefully, recency bias and price lowers the rostership on Andrews because he’s basically a No. 1 wide receiver.

He’s received double-digit targets in four games and gone over 100 yards twice. He has five touchdowns on the season and is the best boo of Lamar Jackson.

Other Options – Dalton Schultz ($4,300), T.J. Hockenson ($5,300)

Value

Cole Kmet ($4,100), Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons – It’s very difficult right now to get off Fields and Kmet. This game has the highest total on the slate, it’s being played in a dome and both defenses are pretty porous. As mentioned in the Fields section, I can envision a scenario in which the game is a slog-fest with the running games dominating and milking the clock, but the more likely outcome is for both offenses to go up and down the field.

Kmet has scored a touchdown in three straight, with two in each of the last two contests. He hasn’t been peppered with targets, receiving seven, six and two, but he has received five red-zone looks during that span. Atlanta has allowed the third-most receptions and yards to tight ends this season.

Other Options – Hayden Hurst ($3,500), Foster Moreau ($3,700)

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Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Patriots DST vs. New York Jets, $3,700 – Bill Belichick vs. Zach Wilson. Uh, yeah.

The Patriots DST has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time and is coming off a 26-DKFP performance in which New England held to Colts to three points while racking up nine sacks, one interception and a touchdown. The Patriots faced the Jets two weeks ago and limited New York to 17 points while producing two sacks and three interceptions.

Other Options – Ravens D/ST ($4,000), Eagles D/ST ($3,900), Cowboys D/ST ($3,200)

Value

Steelers DST at Cincinnati Bengals, $2,300 – Projected rostership numbers aren’t up yet, but I think the Saints will be the most popular DST this week. I get it. They are seventh in adjusted sack rate, the Rams have trouble protecting the quarterback, Matthew Stafford may not play and Cooper Kupp is out. The Saints DST has exceeded points expectations only 10% this season, though, and New Orleans has one double-digit DKFP performance to its name.

The Steelers DST hasn’t been good, but they’ve suffered a bevy of injuries. Last week, though, they put up 10 DKFP — the first double-digit performance since the 25-DKFP explosion against these Bengals in the opener. T.J. Watt returned last week, and his presence elevated the entire unit.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.