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Saturday Night NBA DFS features the perfect slate size. It’s not too big or too small, and with a couple of screens we can watch them all. Let’s dig into some research and make some picks, so we can kick back and enjoy the six-game main slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET.
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Guard
Studs
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, $10,300 — Guessing about rotations is not necessary because he’ll be on the court all game long (35 projected minutes). The PG has been an elite source of fantasy points scoring 1.4 FPPM. Based on his expected production, it shouldn’t take much for him to exceed his salary. Young is not just the usage rate leader on his team, but he’s one of the league leaders — 27.3%. He has a high probability of being in the winning lineup based on his projection of 48.8 points.
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors, $8,900 — Haliburton is too cheap tonight, and he should easily return value. The Pacers will be the main source of fantasy production on Saturday with a projection of 115.5 points. The guard could best be described as a ball hog based on his usage rate of 26.7%. At the end of the night, he should be among the best performers on the slate, if he lives up to his player efficiency rating (24.9 PER). Haliburton — the central piece in last season’s trade with the Kings and a major component of the Pacers’ rebuild — is expected to be a major factor on tonight’s slate with a projection of 55.8 DKFP in the aggressive model.
Value
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors, $3,900 — The 2022 first-round pick (31st) earned his first start on Monday. He played 33 minutes and scored 30.25 DKFP. On Wednesday, he started and played another 29 minutes. His 23 DKFP was lower but he still hit 6.6x. His price has not been updated, so another 25 DKFP will be just fine on Saturday night.
Forward
Studs
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, $10,100 — Tatum spends a lot of time on the court and that’s half the battle in NBA DFS — 37 projected minutes. A key DFS NBA statistical category is points per minute (FPPM), and he’s near the top of the slate in that category — 1.3 FPPM. Sometimes it’s fine to chase raw volume, but a player’s success rate is important in every daily fantasy sport (65.2% True Shooting). Tatum will be a part of MVP debates, if he can maintain his player efficiency rating — 27.5 PER. He has a high probability of being in the winning lineup if he can come close to his ceiling projection of 70.9 fantasy points. Finally, the Celtics should have an easy time tonight in an easy matchup with the Pistons (115.6 defensive efficiency).
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets, $9,100 — He won’t get much rest tonight with one of the largest minute projections on the slate with 35 projected minutes. His 1.2 FPPM is just a smidgen lower than Tatum. The same is true of his usage rate (28.4%) and PER (24.7). However, Tatum may not get his full run on the second night of back-to-back facing an inferior opponent. Butler squares off with the Hornets again. On Thursday, he dropped 64 DKFP on Charlotte.
Value
Sam Hauser, Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, $3,400 — Everyone loves volume, but it doesn’t matter if the shots don’t fall — his shots fall (75.7% True Shooting). It’s not impossible for him to flirt with 7x tonight, and a 6x return seems perfectly reasonable. The Celtics should produce plenty of fantasy points in a favorable matchup with the Pistons (115.6 defensive efficiency). Hauser scored 29.5 DKFP on Wednesday vs. the Pistons. This will be Boston’s third game in four days, so expect the younger players to get plenty of run tonight.
Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors, $5,000 — Smith is expected to see more court time tonight with an 8.4 minute increase. Smith has a fantasy projection much higher than his salary indicates. This game has one of the highest projected over/unders on the slate (230). The aggressive projection model loves him tonight and is projecting 35.2 DKFP. Toronto is on the back end of a back-to-back, and they’re dealing with injuries, so there is a real possibility that Indiana’s offense is the story of the night.
Center
Studs
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets, $8,300 — Someone for the Heat is going off tonight. Adebayo carries a 31.5% usage rate and is projected to log 34 minutes — he played 39 minutes in the Heat’s win over the Hornets in Miami on Wednesday (44.5 DKFP). Adebayo should score in the 40 to 50 DKFP band. This makes him a safe pick but the pick does lack point-per-dollar upside.
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, $6,900 — Across the board, he is expected to be one of the biggest movers in terms of minute increases tonight. Sengun proves that accuracy is more important than volume with an All-Star level True Shooting% (65.5%). Among the point-per-dollar picks on tonight’s slate, he is one of the best options. His player efficiency rating ranks among the best in the league (25.8 PER). The big man projects to be one of the best picks on the slate with a 50 point projection (ceiling projection).
Value
Isaiah Jackson, Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors, $4,100 — The Pacers’ backup big man is a stud in the fantasy point-per-minute department with a 1.2 FPPM. The question is whether he can get enough minutes. Even if he doesn’t eclipse the 20-minute mark, he has proven that he can still return value in a limited rotation role. Jackson scored 33.5 DKFP in 18 minutes on Wednesday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.