We are at the halfway point of the NFL season. Crazy how fast time flies when you’re having fun. What’s not so fun is that there are six teams on bye - Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Looking at that list of teams, maybe this slate could be fun after all! I kid, I kid. Philadelphia, Houston, Tennessee, Kansas City, Baltimore and New Orleans are playing but off the main slate. Looking at that list of teams, I’m sad and want to cry.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points: GB/DET (50) and SEA/ARI (50.5). The LAC/ATL game is right below that at 49.5. There is one game with a double-digit spread: Buffalo -13 over the Jets. Five games are within a field goal: Baltimore -3 over New Orleans, Tampa Bay -2.5 over the Rams, Arizona -2 over the Seahawks and the Chargers -3 over the Falcons. There are six home dogs - the Jets, Bears, Commanders, Lions, Falcons and Jaguars.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,400 — This game has a tight spread of 2 points and the highest total on the slate at 50.5. Murray is a dual-threat quarterback who has two games with double-digit carries and one game with 100 yards. The game environment should be a good one, but it’s the return of his boo, DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900), that has me most excited for Murray’s prospects. He went for over 300 yards for only the second time last week in Hopkins’ second game back in action.
Josh Allen ($8,500) is the best quarterback on the slate, but he is $1,100 more expensive and there are some concerns in that game. The spread is 13 points in favor of Buffalo and the Jets have the No. 1-rated defense according to PFF. I think Allen will still get busy, but believe that Murray could come close to or even exceed his production.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,500), Joe Burrow ($6,600), Kirk Cousins ($6,200)
Value
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins, $5,300 — Fields has attempted over 25 passes and exceeded 200 yards passing only once this season. That said, he’s scored 24.36 and 26.04 DKFP in the last two weeks, primarily due to his rushing prowess. He has rushed eight and 13 times for 60 and 82 yards, respectively, and scored a touchdown in both games. The coaching staff has finally begun to call scheme-designed runs for Fields and it’s made him more successful. Allow your best players to do what they do best and good things usually happen. What a shocking concept!
The forecast for Sunday is sunny with temps in the 60s in Chicago. Miami has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and the Bears just traded for Chase Claypool, who could bolster the offense if he suits up this week.
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,800)
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Running Back
Stud
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons, $8,800 — The Chargers are coming off their bye, so Ekeler should be well-rested and refreshed. In the four games prior to the break, he went for 36.7, 24.3, 38.9 and 34.9 DKFP. He scored five rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns. He also received 12 and 16 targets in the past two games.
The Falcons have allowed the ninth-most targets to running backs and have faced a league-high 39 red-zone touches to the position.
Other Options – Aaron Jones ($7,400), Travis Etienne ($6,300), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200)
Value
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $5,400 – Yuck, I hate having opposing running backs written up, but it is what it is. The Falcons pass at the second-lowest rate in the league and Allgeier is receiving around 60% of the snaps.
The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards, eighth-most touchdowns and second-most fantasy points on average to running backs.
Other Options – Jamaal Williams ($5,900)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders, $8,600 — Washington is second in rush-defense DVOA. That’s cute because Minnesota is eighth in passing rate while Washington is 28th in pass-defense DVOA. Ruh-roh.
Jefferson has scored fewer than 20 DKFP in each of the past two games, but he is always in play to blow up. On the season, he has three games over 30 DKFP with a high of 42.4.
Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($8,500), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900), Tee Higgins ($7,300), Tyler Lockett ($6,100)
Value
Marquise Goodwin, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, $3,900 – Both Arizona and Seattle are decent at defending the run. Points should be scored in this one and the passing games could flourish. Arizona does a great job of defending No. 1 receivers, so Goodwin could get busy in this one. Over the past two games, he’s received five targets in each game. The yardage totals were only 33 and 67 yards but he hauled in two touchdowns two weeks ago.
Other Options – Rondale Moore ($5,200), Romeo Doubs ($5,300), Adam Thielen ($5,600), DJ Moore ($5,800)
Tight End
Stud
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $5,100 – Mark Andrew and Travis Kelce are off the slate once again, so the tight end position is barren. The return of Hopkins made the pie smaller for all the Cardinals receivers, but Ertz still caught four of five targets for 34 yards and a touchdown last week.
Points should be scored in this one and the Seahawks are 28th in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the most fantasy points on average to the position
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($4,500)
Value
Noah Fant ($2,900)/Will Dissly ($3,000), Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals – Both Fant and Dissly play 70% of the snaps and split the targets. Unfortunately, the target pie hasn’t been robust, as Fant has 29 while Dissly has received 22 on the season. One of them could hit this weekend, though.
Arizona is 31st in DVOA, has allowed the second-most fantasy points, second-most yards and has tied for the most touchdowns allowed to the position.
Other Options – Hayden Hurst ($3,600), Robert Tonyan ($3,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Bills D/ST at New York Jets, $4,300 – The Jets want to run the ball and play to their defense. That may not be possible this week as the Bills are fifth in rush-defense DVOA and will likely put up points, forcing the Jets to get more aggressive through the air. Well, Jets are supposed to fly, right? Zach Wilson ($5,100) is the pilot, which makes New York fans cringe, but makes Bills fans smile from ear to ear.
Buffalo has racked up 21 sacks, recovered one fumble, intercepted 11 passes and scored one touchdown.
Other Options – Vikings D/ST ($3,500)
Value
Buccaneers D/ST vs. Los Angeles Rams, $3,000 – The Rams are 30th in pass protection according to PFF. The Bucs are second in adjusted sack rate. Sometimes it’s as simple as that.
Other Options – Lions D/ST ($2,600)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.