Happy Halloween Hangover Day. Unwrap the candy that you stole from the kids, recline the chair, kick your feet up on the table and prepare for the tiny four-game slate we have Tuesday.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set above 225 in three games: GS/MIA (226), CHI/BKN (232) and MIN/PHO (227.5). Tuesday’s outlier is the ORL/OKC game at a paltry 216. There are no double-digit favorites and every game is tight, with PHO the biggest favorite at 3.5 points.
In terms of back-to-backs, BKN is playing the second leg while CHI and MIA both play tomorrow. There are injury concerns, so go to DK Live for the latest updates.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls ($9,700) – Irving is a basketball savant with one of the best handle packages in the game. His usage rate has been 30.8% this season, and he’s converting 47% of his 22.9 field-goal attempts. Did I forget to mention that he also grabs five rebounds, dishes out 4.9 assists, pilfers 1.7 steals and blocks 1.1 shots per game? Over the last six games, he’s gone over 50 DKFP, with two of those over 60.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Orlando Magic ($9,400) – SGA has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time this season. He’s scored at least 40 DKFP in every contest and has gone over 50 three times, with two of those over 60. His usage rate is 33.3%, and he literally stuffs the stat sheet. For perspective, in season-long category leagues, Gilgeous-Alexander is the No. 1 player on a per-game basis currently.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Orlando Magic ($3,900) – Williams was inactive for four games due to an orbital bone fracture. He returned on Saturday and balled out, playing 27 minutes and putting up 13 points, three rebounds, three assists, four steals and one block. That translated to 29.75 DKFP. He’s a rookie, but he looks comfortable and the game doesn’t look too fast for him. With Josh Giddey out, playing time in the mid-20s seems tenable once again.
Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls ($10,200) – Durant averages 1.33 DKFP per, the highest on the slate at the forward position. He’s scored at least 45 DKFP in every contest this season, with a high of 61.25. It’s a pace-up spot for Brooklyn, as the Bulls are playing at the ninth-fastest pace. Chicago also boosts the FPPM to power forwards by 6.69% — the ninth-most generous.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors ($8,400) – His usage rate of 23.4% pales in comparison to most of the top options. As a result, ceiling games aren’t as numerous because he doesn’t force the action and plays within the system. He usually ends up in the 30- to 40-DKFP range, which displays the all-around game he possesses. But, that doesn’t mean ceiling games are out of the question. He has 18 career triple-doubles and went for 59.5 DKFP two games ago vs. these Warriors. Last season, he exceeded 50 DKFP 13 times, with four performances over 60 and a high of 80.75.
Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,600) – Okeke is a low-usage player, so the points will rarely be voluminous. He does chip in a little in every category, though, but the most important thing is he’s played 25 and 29 minutes over the last two games, and minutes are half the battle.
Other Options – Jalen Williams ($3,900), Darius Bazley ($4,100), Javonte Green ($3,500)
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors ($7,400) – Adebayo is one of the most versatile centers in the league, as he can defend every position, shoot the mid-range J and rack up defensive stats. He’s scored over 20 points in each of the last two games and put up 49 DKFP vs. the Warriors two games ago (26 points, eight rebounds, one assist, four steals and three blocks). A repeat of the robust defensive stats is unlikely, but the Warriors have boosted the FPPM to centers by a league-leading 24.31%.
Wendell Carter, Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder ($6,800) – The Warriors have boosted the DKFP per minute to centers the most, but the Thunder are right behind at 19.27% — good for third-most generous. Carter has been meh from a DKFP perspective so far, as he’s gone for 40 only once. That said, he has 50-DKFP potential — a number he reached four times last season. His high of 59 DKFP last season came vs. the Thunder, so....
Jock Landale, Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,000) – With Deandre Ayton out, the center minutes will be split between Landale and Bismack Biyombo ($5,500). Biyombo will likely start and be higher-rostered, but I think Landale is the better play. He’s more offensive-minded and has the ability to stretch the floor — something the Suns will likely want to do with Rudy Gobert ($8,200) on the floor. So far this season, the Timberwolves have boosted 3-pointers taken by centers by 34.2%.
Other Options – Nic Claxton ($5,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.