clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 5 2022 Top High-Upside DFS Contrarian Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Game Stack: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Justin Herbert ($7,100) — Nick Chubb ($8,000) — Mike Williams ($7,100) — Gerald Everett ($4,200)

Last week’s game stack focused on two defenses — Detroit and Seattle — that eventually gave up a combined 93 points and created multiple top-five fantasy performances in Week 4. This week’s game stack features two more overrated defenses who are below average in yards per play allowed, points per game allowed and yards per carry against.

Los Angeles simply cannot stop the run and it ranks second-last in yards per carry against this season. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb has arguably been the best rusher in the league this season, averaging 5.7 YPC and 114 yards rushing per game. At $8,000 flat, his DraftKings price and lack of usage in the passing game seem likely to keep his ownership low in this spot — which makes this a great pay-up opportunity in GPPs. In their last three outings, the Chargers have allowed the trio of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson and Dameon Pierce to all rush for over 5.8 yards per carry against them. Chubb is a significantly better rusher than all three (except maybe Pierce) and has the potential for another slate breaking kind of day in Week 5.

If Chubb breaks out, it could also up the passing volume for the Chargers’ offense, who lit up the Texans for 340 yards through the air last week. Mike Williams should be in for another week of heavy targets, with Keenan still not back to practicing as of Thursday morning. The 6’4 Williams continues to be somewhat of a boom-or-bust prospect, but could face off against the 5’10 Denzel Ward on the outside. Cleveland’s allowed plenty of big plays to elite WRs this year and it ranks in the bottom-half of the league in terms of DKFP allowed to the WR position and yards per pass attempt against.

Since we’re playing for the high scoring affair, and Cleveland’s rush defense may get a boost with Myles Garrett (questionable) back to practice, pairing Herbert with two of his receivers seems like the way to maximize the upside from this game. Gerald Everett has arguably been the most consistent receiver not named Mike Williams for L.A. and is averaging 7.33 targets over his last three games. He’s averaged a stout 13.2 yards per catch with Justin Herbert under center, and gives us access to another big play threat, while keeping the total average salary of this stack down.


Justin Fields, Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings ($5,300)

Justin Fields comes into this game averaging nine rush attempts and 36.5 yards as a rusher per game. The passing volume has been atrocious for the Bears’ offensive players this season, but Fields’ rushing upside alone keeps him on the radar as a potential GPP candidate. For Week 5, he takes on a Vikings team that ranks fourth-worst in yards per pass attempt against and allowed a monster 8.4 yards per attempt last week to Andy Dalton.

The Vikings’ secondary has been masked thus far in 2022 by some weaker matchups, but Fields himself exposed this group last year by tossing for 285 yards — only the second time he’s exceeded 280 passing yards as a pro. Minnesota ranks third in pace of play this season and their offense should push the Bears into more passing situations than we’ve seen in previous weeks. Expect Fields to push for his season-high in attempts, yards and DKFP in this game. He and Darnell Mooney ($5,000) — with Justin Jefferson ($8,900) as a comeback play — make for an excellent cheap stack to deploy in bigger GPPs.

Running Back

Top End: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions ($5,500)

The Patriots take on the Detroit Lions this week, so some exposure to their offense feels like a must. The Lions are last in the league in yards per opponent rush and have allowed an absurd eight TDs to the RB position already this season. Second year player Rhamondre Stevenson has also taken a slight lead in the Patriots’ backfield competition, out-touching Damien Harris 34-32 over the last two weeks, while quietly emerging as the superior passing down back — converting 78% of his targets into catches this year. The uncertainty at QB for New England may even work to keep his ownership somewhat palatable in larger field tournaments. Either way, Stevenson’s 4.9 yards per carry on the season, and increased passing game usage, make him a monster upside play this week. He has the potential to be theeeee value play of the week given his $5,500 salary.

Value: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,700)

With Cordarrelle Patterson on IR, the Falcons should be turning to rookie Tyler Allgeier to carry a far bigger load going forward. The fifth-round running back showcased well-rounded ability as a between-the-tackles bruiser with soft hands in college, and is easily the best suited RB on the Falcons’ roster to step into a leading role. He reeled off two plays of 20 yards or more against the Browns last week and now faces a Buccaneers defensive line that has regressed this season against the rush. In fact, they just allowed 5.1 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs. Atlanta has run the ball on over 55% of their snaps and rank second in rush play percentage this season. Let other people take the wait and see approach, and don't be afraid to use Allgeier as your value target in Week 5 lineups.

Wide Receiver

Top end: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints ($5,600)

Despite averaging 10 targets and eight receptions over his last three games, Tyler Lockett’s salary on DraftKings actually went down by $200 this week, making him an excellent mid-tier value to build around. The Seahawks defense (or lack thereof) has turned them into an above-average passing offense thus far and that’s not something I’d necessarily expect to see change, except against the most anemic of offenses. The Saints’ secondary has again had its issues guarding against big plays and have given up the 10th-most yards against to opposing WRs — in addition to allowing Vikings WRs to convert on 77% of their targets last week. Lockett will be popular this week, but it’s for good reason. Considering his volume of late, a true breakout game is coming soon and could happen here against New Orleans.

Value: Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,200)

The Bills take on a Pittsburgh secondary that has given up the sixth-most DKFP to opposing WRs so far in 2022. Buffalo is now down Jamison Crowder (ankle) for Week 5 and they seem likely to be without Isaiah McKenzie ($5,000; concussion), as well. Rookie Khalil Shakir would become a legitimate DFS option, at just over the minimum price, if McKenzie does sit. Shakir showed off last game with a couple of key catches late in the Bills’ comeback win. An expanded role and snap count seem to be coming for Shakir, who may have little to no competition for three-down sets against a weaker secondary in Pittsburgh. You'll need to watch the injury report on McKenzie, specifically, but if he’s ruled, out Shakir becomes a legit deep value target for DFS.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals ($4,700)

The Cardinals have gone from being one of the best teams guarding against opposing TEs, to one of the worst in 2022. Arizona’s insanely high blitz rate (42.2% through four weeks) is likely causing some of this regression, and we should expect a mobile quarterback like Jalen Hurts ($8,100) to make them pay dearly for this strategy again in Week 5. Dallas Goedert has been the clear No. 3 option in terms of targeting in Philadelphia, but he’s still managed to average 4.0 receptions per game at an eye-popping 15.0 yards per reception. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most yardage to the TE position through four weeks, making this a great opportunity for Goedert to step up and grab more targets and yardage. He’s a prime breakout candidate for DFS this week.

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots ($2,900) vs Detroit Lions

Patriots D/ST has been one of the more opportunistic in the league this year, recording two turnovers in each of their last three games. This week they’ll get a Lions offense that will be making their first start outdoors in 2022, and remain banged up with D’Andre Swift ($7,000; shoulder/ankle) and Amon Ra St. Brown ($7,600; ankle) both potentially set to miss this game. The weather is also slated to be on the cooler side, with winds in the 10 mph or greater range, making this an ideal spot for the Patriots to pressure Jared Goff ($6,100), who has thrown INTs in two straight games.

New England has been solid with their pressure rate up front and rank sixth in sacks per game. If they can slow down Jamaal Williams ($6,500) early, this has the potential to get ugly for Goff, who could be relying on third-stringers at wide receiver once again.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.