This slate might get a little messy. As of last night, the playoff picture in the MLB is mostly set. Well, we at least know all 12 teams in the dance. Combine that lack of drama with some ugly weather in the northeast, and we’ve certainly got the potential for some ugly games and some even uglier lineups. Keep your head on a swivel leading up to lock.
In the meantime, let’s find some studs and values.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, $9,400 - While the Diamondbacks don’t technically have anything left to play for, that’s been the case for some time, and it hasn’t stopped Gallen from throwing 100-plus pitches in three of his last five starts. I don’t think we see any restrictions on Tuesday. With that worry put to rest, let us celebrate what’s been an amazing season for the RHP. Across Gallen’s past 10 appearances, the 27-year-old has maintained a 1.06 ERA and a 1.66 FIP. He’s also managed an eye-popping 33.8% strikeout rate. Gallen clearly doesn’t need any help to be viable, yet after getting officially eliminated on Monday night, would it be shocking to see some of the Brewers’ regulars out of the lineup this evening?
Michael Lorenzen, Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, $6,800 - Lorenzen faced the Athletics in his last trip to the mound, not allowing an earned run over five innings of work. The right-hander also struck out eight men and racked up 27.7 DKFP. So, it’s sort of easy to see why I’m willing to go back to the well on Tuesday. Lorenzen’s actually looked pretty good since coming off a lengthy IL stint, as he’s collected 21 strikeouts over his past 15.0 innings. That level of upside mixed with Oakland’s season-long inability to hit RHPs is more than enough reason to double-dip.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,700 - It’s almost impressive how poorly Ryan Feltner ($5,700) has pitched away from Coors Field this season. In fact, a majority of the home runs he’s surrendered have been outside the altitude, with the rookie conceding 1.84 long balls per nine on the road. That’s more than enough reason to pay up for Freeman on Tuesday, who happens to be slashing a cool .340/.427/.538 with a 169 wRC+ against RHPs in 2022.
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Blue Jays and the Orioles has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays , $4,100 - Mountcastle has always hit Blue Jays pitching well, and he’ll get a great opportunity to add to his impressive numbers tonight against Mitch White ($5,500) . White has been struggling severely since being traded to the American League — particularly with right-handed opponents. To wit, White’s faced 94 RHBs as a member of Toronto. Those men have combined to hit .356 with a .500 slugging percentage. Woof.
J.D. Davis, San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, $3,600 - Davis has long been considered a useful platoon bat, and his numbers against LHPs have flourished in 2022 since being traded to San Francisco. In the 72 plate appearances within the split Davis has garnered since the move, he’s posted a .270 ISO and a 159 wRC+. The lefty he’ll square off with on Tuesday? Sean Manaea ($6,500), who just so happens to own a ghastly 7.19 ERA since the All-Star break. Advantage: Davis.
Whit Merrifield, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, $3,200 - Three-hit Whit? That’s been the case in three of Merrifield’s past four games, as the former Royal continues to get hot prior to the playoffs. Merrifield’s been getting steady playing time since Santiago Espinal (oblique) was placed on the IL, which has translated into the veteran slashing an insane .474/.475/.895 with a 287 wRC+ in his last 40 plate appearances. That won’t last forever, but I have my doubts that Mike Baumann ($4,800) is going to be the one who slows Merrifield down.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, $6,300 - Trout hits everybody well, but he’s been particularly good against LHPs in 2022. In his 130 plate appearances within the split, the All-Star has posted a .440 wOBA and a 192 wRC+. He’ll get another crack at a southpaw this evening in the form of Cole Irvin ($7,100), who has been sputtering to the finish line that is October baseball. In Irvin’s last nine starts, opponents have combined to hit .313 with a .521 slugging percentage.
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,000 - With the Jays clinching home field advantage in the Wild Card round last night, I’d expect White and a parade of low-leverage relievers to take the mound this evening in rainy Baltimore. That certainly helps the viability of someone like Mullins, who can rack up DKFP in a variety of ways. Not only does Mullins own a 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, but he’s also swiped 34 bases — the third-most in baseball.
Stone Garrett, Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,300 - You shouldn’t need a reason to play Garrett beyond his very cool first name, but I’m a people pleaser, so here we go. In the 48 plate appearances Garrett’s had against LHPs this season, he’s hitting .326 with a 155 wRC+. Because of that success within the split, Garrett’s tended to hit leadoff for the Diamondbacks when the team is opposed by a southpaw. It’s also not like Eric Lauer ($8,800) has been all that great, as he’s pitched to an underwhelming 4.96 FIP since the beginning of June.
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $2,300 - If McCormick’s not in the lineup for tonight’s contest, I honestly don’t know why he’s on Houston’s roster. The outfielder has destroyed left-handed pitching in 2022, registering a .404 wOBA and a 169 wRC+ in his 110 plate appearances within the split. Ranger Suarez ($8,300) is an above-average southpaw, but at this low a price, I’d give McCormick a look against a left-handed Roger Clemens.
TEAMS TO STACK
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Mullins, Mountcastle, Anthony Santander ($4,700) , Adley Rutschman ($4,700) , Gunnar Henderson ($4,000) and maybe even a dash of Kyle Stowers ($2,300) or Terrin Vavra ($2,200) — it’s all on the table tonight against Toronto. Mitch White will be asked to eat innings regardless of result, and I expect names like Trevor Richards and David Phelps to follow out of the pen. The Orioles should have an offensive explosion.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.