Week 8. I cannot wait for this slate. Hopefully, it does not cause me to be irate. May the DK points inflate so the fate of my estate may equate to one that is great. I’ll be here every Wednesday.
We have an 11-game slate. Only the Chiefs and Chargers are on bye this week.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there is one game with a total of at least 50 points: MIA/DET (51.5). There are eight games with a total below 45. The DEN/JAX game has the lowest total at 39, while there are three games right around 40 — WAS/IND (40), TEN/HOU (40.5) and NE/NYJ (40.5). There is one double-digit favorite — PHI -10.5 vs. PIT — but DAL/CHI is right there, with the Cowboys favored by 9.5. There are seven games that are within a field goal.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24416202/sportsbook.jpg)
Bet at the top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at the top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $8,300 — The Eagles rush at the third-highest rate in the league, but much of that is due to the rushing prowess of Hurts, who has at least nine carries in every game this season, with double-digit attempts in four contests. Hurts also has six rushing touchdowns on the season!
The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league and would like nothing better than to pound Miles Sanders ($6,600), who has at least 15 carries in the last five games. That said, the Steelers are ninth in rush-defense DVOA, and I have a feeling the Eagles will employ a similar plan of attack to what the Bills implemented vs. Pittsburgh in Week 5, which is put the ball in the hands of the team’s best player and let him fling it to a bevy of playmaking wide receivers. The Eagles are also coming off their bye.
Value
Sam Ehlinger, Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders, $4,000 — Ehlinger is the stone-cold minimum and will get the start this weekend. He is 6-foot-3, 230 pounds and played his college ball at Texas. Matt Waldman had many positive things to say about Ehlinger and thought the Colts were the perfect place for him to land. The main allure of Ehlinger is his ability to run. In college, he rushed 554 times for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns over four seasons. The rushing prowess provides a high floor, and there is ceiling with the weapons he has in the passing game. At this price, the risk/reward is too favorable. It will be interesting to see what the projected ownership numbers come in at.
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,800), Daniel Jones ($5,700)
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, $8,400 — Henry is the second-most expensive running back on the slate. With Josh Jacobs ($7,500) and Saquon Barkley ($8,100) cheaper, Henry could come in with lower rostership. If so, give me all the Henry.
He is the engine that makes the Titans offense go, having carried at least 20 times in every game but one, and he’s rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three contests. Surprisingly, he’s received three, two, five and six targets in the passing game over the last four weeks. The Texans are dead-last in rush-defense DVOA. Uh, yeah. Let’s go!
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($8,100), Josh Jacobs ($7,500), Kenneth Walker III ($6,500)
Value
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions, $5,900 – After splitting snaps with Chase Edmonds ($5,100) for the first three weeks of the season, Mostert has garnered two-thirds of the pie over the last four weeks, resulting in 16, 14, 18 and 15 carries, going over 20 DKFP in two of those games. He’s also received anywhere from two to five targets. The Lions are 29th in rush-defense DVOA and have allowed the third-most fantasy points on average to running backs.
Other Options – D’Onta Foreman ($5,300)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions, $8,500 — Arizona has been good defending No. 1 receivers, so I’m off Justin Jefferson ($9,100). Cooper Kupp ($9,600) is always in play, especially since the Rams are coming off their bye and are facing a 49ers defense that just got eviscerated by the Chiefs. I’m going with Hill, though. He’s the cheapest out of the bunch, leads the league in targets, plays on the fast track in Detroit and faces a Lions team that is 31st in pass-defense DVOA. Detroit also allows the second-highest yards per attempt.
Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($9,600), A.J. Brown ($7,700), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900), DK Metcalf ($6,600), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), DeVonta Smith ($6,300)
Value
Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,300 – This is not for the feint of heart, as the floor is literally zero. Actually, he could fumble, which could provide negative DKFP. I apologize.
That said, he’s on the field around 60% of the time, and I do think the Eagles will attack more via the air, especially deep down the field. This is where Watkins excels with his 4.35 40 speed. All it takes is one bomb. If not, then this play bombs, but at least the price is cheap.
Other Options – Marquise Goodwin ($4,400), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,700)
Tight End
Stud
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings, $5,100 – Mark Andrew and Travis Kelce are off the slate, so the tight end position is barren. The return of Hopkins made the pie smaller for all the Cardinals receivers, as he garnered 14 targets last week. That said, the matchup vs. the Saints wasn’t a good one for Ertz, as they are one of the best teams at defending the position. This week’s matchup, Minnesota, is on the opposite end of the spectrum, allowing seventh-most DKFP to tight ends while being dead-last in DVOA against the position.
Other Options – T.J. Hockenson ($4,900)
Value
Irv Smih Jr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals, $3,500 – Smith isn’t sexy, as he has not reached 50 yards receiving in any game this season. He does have two touchdowns, though, and has received at least four targets in the last five games, with a high of eight. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and are 28th in DVOA against the position.
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($4,000), Will Dissly ($3,200), Noah Fant ($2,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Cowboys D/ST vs. Chicago Bears, $4,000 – The Bears should encounter much more difficulty this week, on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys offense should be more effective than the Patriots and should put up points. The Bears want to run the ball, but the Cowboys are 12th in rush-defense DVOA. As a result, the Bears will likely have to tilt more toward the pass, which spells trouble. Dallas has one of the elite pass-rushing units, while the Bears are one of the poorest teams in protecting the quarterback. Ruh roh. Cowboys defense should get plenty of Scooby snacks in this one.
Other Options – Titans D/ST ($3,600), Colts D/ST ($3,700)
Value
Patriots D/ST at New York Jets, $3,000 – I don’t think this is a slam dunk by any means, so if the projected ownership gets too high, then I have no problems moving off. The main concern is the Patriots have been poor at defending the run, and the Jets want to run the ball as much as possible. That said, I have a feeling Bill Belichick will cook up something to force Zach Wilson ($5,100) to beat him — and have you see Wilson play?
Other Options – 49ers D/ST ($3,100)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.