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Fantasy Football Picks: Bears vs. Patriots DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Bears and the Patriots with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

I’m not quite sure how the Chicago Bears managed to get consecutive primetime games, but mercifully, I can at least sleep tonight knowing this is the last time this will happen this season. The New England Patriots aren’t much more exciting — particularly with “Zappe Fever” now on the back burner — but we might at least get some weird cutaways to Steve Belichick. That’s something, right?

Let’s break down another Monday Night doozy from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs NE)


Captain’s Picks

Rhamondre Stevenson ($16,200 CP) - If I’m being completely honest, Stevenson’s viability as a Captain says more about the lack of options on this slate than it does about his current situation. While the sophomore RB has seen a total of 50 touches across the past two weeks, a majority of those opportunities came with Damien Harris ($8,400) unavailable due to a hamstring injury. Harris will be back on Monday, and the duo will almost certainly be in a timeshare. Still, there are some question marks about how involved Harris will be just 15 days removed from a serious soft-tissue ailment. Bears D/ST ($4,000) has also been horrendous against the run this season, entering Week 7 ranked 27th in the league by DVOA. As such, Chicago’s surrendered 169.0 opponent rushing yards per contest across its past three games — the fourth-worst mark in the league during that span. If Stevenson gets the goal line work, no asset has a higher ceiling.

Patriots D/ST ($8,400 CP) - It’s not often you need to play a defense on a Showdown slate, but this is without a doubt one of those occasions. The Bears’ offensive line is the easily the worst in the NFL. Chicago has conceded a league-high 23 sacks through six games, while the unit’s 15.7% adjusted sack rate looks like a statistical anomaly when juxtaposed to the rest of football. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defensive line owns the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate (8.5%) and the team has managed at least three sacks in four of their six contests. I’m almost positive they’ll make it five of seven this evening. According to PFF, Justin Fields ($10,400) has been under pressure on 50.4% of his drop backs — the most of any qualified quarterback. He’s completing a putrid 33.3% of his passes in this scenario. He’s also fumbled seven times since Week 2, because obviously he has. He barely has time to think.

FLEX Plays

Justin Fields ($10,400) - Everything I just said about the Bears’ offensive woes is true, yet that doesn’t mean that Fields is an asset to avoid on Monday. The former first-round pick possesses the most DFS upside of any player on the Bears’ roster, thanks primarily to his ability to operate as a dual-threat QB. Fields came into Week 7 sitting third among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (54) and rushing yards (281). Heck, Fields has handled a whopping 29.4% of Chicago’s carries in the red zone so far this season. In a perfect world, the Bears are not a team intending to throw the football all that much, yet as sizable road underdogs, the game script will likely dictate many second-half drop backs for the Ohio State product. That means more opportunity to score DKFP — for both Fields and New England’s defense.

Tyquan Thornton ($6,600) - I like how things are trending for the rookie wideout. Thornton was the talk of Patriots’ training camp prior to his injury, and while two touchdowns every week isn’t a sustainable goal, New England is clearly looking for ways to get the ball into the explosive athlete’s hands. On top of the five targets Thornton saw in Week 6’s victory over the Browns, the 22-year-old also received three carries. Thornton’s snap count jumped from 25 in his first contest to 40 last weekend. If his role continues to grow against the Bears, he likely won’t have a very difficult time bringing back value at this modest price tag. DeVante Parker ($7,000) is probably the safer play, though.


Mac Jones ($9,800) - It feels like there’s a lot working against Jones in this spot. Not only has the young pivot not played since all the way back in Week 3, but Jones wasn’t super successful prior to his injury. The second-year QB tossed five interceptions in three starts and he was averaging a very underwhelming 0.42 DKFP per drop back. That’s a tough recipe, because Jones needs to lean on efficiency more than most quarterbacks. The Patriots want to run the football — they have the second-lowest pass rate in the AFC (50.8%) — so Jones doesn’t get all that many chances to pile up fantasy points. I’d expect that to be the case once again on Monday, with New England very likely to be playing with the lead for a majority of the game. Plus, there’s probably a world where we see Bailey Zappe ($9,400) at some point, right? Right?!


Doesn’t it feel like this is the Patriots’ ideal opponent? The Bears can’t control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. They get gashed in the running game and, obviously, they can’t protect their own quarterback. I’d honestly be shocked if Chicago stayed within two scores, though Fields could very well work some garbage time magic.

Final Score: New England 27, Chicago 14

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs NE)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.