The NLCS shifts to Philadelphia tied 1-1. While the pitching matchups have been a coin flip through the first two games, I feel as if the Padres have a distinct advantage in Game 3.
Let’s break down this Game 3 from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (SD vs PHI)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Joe Musgrove ($16,200 CP) - The most expensive player on the slate, Musgrove has been nearly untouchable in this postseason. In two starts, he’s thrown 13 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits with 13 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting just .152 against him while he’s yet to allow a home run. He also has been nearly just as good on the road as he was at Petco Park during the regular season. On the road, Musgrove sported a 3.01 ERA with a .287 wOBA and only eight of the 22 home runs he would allow. The Phillies biggest power threats both hit left-handed, with Kyle Schwarber ($9,600) and Bryce Harper ($10,000). At least during the season, Musgrove was extremely tough against lefties on the road, boasting a .272 wOBA and only three home runs allowed against them through 48 innings.
Manny Machado ($14,700 CP) - While pitchers are always very popular captain picks, I think Machado is one of the better hitting options you could use. He’s been a monster during the Padres' playoff run and has gone over 1.5 total bases in five of the nine games thus far. He’s slashing .306/.375/.639 with three home runs, six RBI, three runs scored, and a .429 wOBA over that span. He has plenty of pop against lefties with a .253 ISO during the regular season, as nearly half of his hits against lefties went for extra bases. While it’s always a risk to take a hitter here, if Machado can get ahold of one, you’ll be sitting pretty with 1.5x fantasy points.
UTIL Plays
Brandon Drury ($8,800) - You could argue that Drury is overpriced for his lack of production during these playoffs. Aside from yesterday when he went 2-for-4 with a three-run home run and 21 DKFP, he’s been very quiet at the plate. However, hitting against lefties has been his strong point all season long and could be the matchup he needs to start getting on a roll. Against lefties, Drury posted a .403 wOBA with a .327 ISO and a 160 wRC+. While Suarez does keep the ball on the ground a lot, he does lose command at times and puts men on base. Not only have the Padres been one of the more patient teams in the leagues against lefties but they hit .269 with men on base. Drury, specifically, hit .298 with 14 home runs and 73 RBI in that scenario. My guess is his ownership will be low with this price tag.
Bryson Stott ($6,200) - If you’re going expensive at captain, you’ll need to pay down a bit in your utility spots. Stott is a very interesting play for me, as he’s one of the better hitters they have against sliders. Musgrove throws his slider nearly as much as he does his fastball. Amongst his six-pitch arsenal, his slider is thrown 24.4% of the time while his fastball is at 24%. Stott hit .271 against the slider with an xBA of .265. While he doesn’t have a lot of power, he does have some speed on the base paths, swiping 12 bags. He’ll most certainly check in at very low ownership, which could give you an edge if you’re taking some of the chalkier picks at captain.
Fades
Ranger Suarez ($10,400) - As you can probably figure out, I’m not a fan of Suarez in this game. I think the Padres will be able to get to him early and knock him out of this one. As we saw against the Braves, Suarez can get real shaky with his command, as he walked five through 3.1 innings. Luckily for him, the Braves were unable to capitalize on those opportunities or it could have been much worse for the Phillies starter. As for the Padres, they remain one of the most patient teams in the league against lefties. Suarez also struggled with pitching at home, where he had a 4.27 ERA, a .331 wOBA and an xFIP of 4.10.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (SD vs PHI)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.