There are 11 games on Sunday’s main slate. The Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles are all on bye.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there is one game with a total of at least 50 points: SEA/LAC (51). There are five games with a total below 45. The NYJ/DEN game has the lowest total at 39.5, while the TB/CAR is right there at 40. There is one double-digit favorite: TB -11 over CAR. There are four games that are within a field goal.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24416202/sportsbook.jpg)
Bet at the top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at the top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Quarterback
Stud
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,200 — Herbert put up 9.42 DKFP last week while throwing 57 times for 238 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt. Yuck. The opponent was the Broncos, who are a divisional rival and happen to boast the top pass defense DVOA. This week’s contest will be easier. A lot easier, as the Seahawks are 26th in pass defense DVOA and allowed Jared Goff to go for 378 yards and four touchdowns two weeks ago. This game has the highest total on the slate at 51 and the Chargers are sixth in pace of play and eighth in passing rate.
Other Options – Joe Burrow ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($6,700)
Value
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, $5,400 —The Titans are third in rush defense DVOA, while being 29th in pass defense. The running backs for the Colts are questionable with injuries and Ryan had his second-best performance of 2022 against the Titans three weeks ago. He went 27-of-37 for 356 with two touchdowns and one interception. He’s also coming off a game against the Jaguars in which he went 42-of-58 for 389 yards and three touchdowns.
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,600)
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
Running Back
Stud
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks, $8,300 — After starting the season slow with 11.2 DKFP, 18.4 DKFP and 13.3 DKFP across the first three weeks, Ekeler has been the beast that fantasy owners were drooling over in the offseason. He’s gone for 24.3 DKFP, 38.9 DKFP and 34.9 DKFP in his last three contests, respectively. While he has exceeded 15 carries and 100 yards rushing only once, he’s scored four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks and garnered a massive target share for his position. Ekeler is third in red zone opportunities amongst all skill-position players and this game should yield plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Leonard Fournette ($7,700), Derrick Henry ($8,200)
Value
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans, $6,500 – The Raiders are seven-point favorites at home, so Jacobs checks that box. Over the last two games, he’s rushed 21 and 28 times for 154 and 144 yards, respectively, with three total touchdowns. That’s been good for 33.3 DKFP and 37.5 DKFP. The surprising thing has been the involvement in the passing game as he’s received a combined 17 targets over the last three weeks. He leads the Raiders with 16 red zone opportunities and now faces a Texans team that is 29th in rush defense DVOA.
Other Options – Breece Hall ($6,200), Kenneth Walker III ($5,800), Ezekiel Elliot ($6,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions, $6,800 — Lamb leads the Cowboys in targets by a significant margin. Dak Prescott ($6,700) will likely be returning to action after missing the last five weeks and the matchup is pristine as the Lions are dead-last in pass defense DVOA. Detroit blitzes at the third-highest rate and they live in man coverage. Dallas is fifth-best in protecting the quarterback.
Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,700), Deebo Samuel ($7,600)
Value
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders, $6,000 – Cooks isn’t a sexy option and often goes overlooked. And for good reason, as he’s not the most physically imposing receiver, has scored only one touchdown this season, has failed to haul in more than 85 yards in a game and plays on one of the poorer offenses in the league. That said, he’s received 12, 10, 7, 7 and 6 targets this season and he usually blows up in one or two games per season. This could be the week, as he faces a Raiders team that is 30th in pass defense DVOA. Las Vegas should put up points in this one, forcing the Texans to be more aggressive through the air.
Other Options – Alec Pierce ($4,600), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,500)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers, $8,000 – Not much analysis is needed here. The 49ers have the best rush defense, while Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($7,400)
Value
Kylen Granson, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, $2,500 – I feel gross writing this, especially since the Colts split the tight end snaps evenly amongst three players. In addition, Mo Alie-Cox ($3,000) caught all six of his targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns against this Titans team three weeks ago. That said, the Titans are one of the poorest teams defending against the tight end position and, since that last Titans game, Granson has significantly out-targeted Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods ($2,500). Alie-Cox is priced $500 more, so I’ll take the discount.
Other Options – Mo Alie-Cox ($3,000), Gerald Everett ($4,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Editor’s Note: Panthers QB PJ Walker (neck) will start Week 7 vs. the Buccaneers, per Steve Wilks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, $3,900 – Quarterback PJ Walker ($5,000) is questionable after suffering a neck injury last week. Baker Mayfield ($5,000) or Jacob Eason ($5,000) will be under center if Walker is unable to go. Yeah, I’d fire up any defense against that triumvirate. It helps that Tampa Bay is second in adjusted sack rate and blitzes at the sixth-highest rate. The unit has 13 DKFP and 26 DKFP performances on the season resume.
Other Options – Cowboys D/ST ($4,000)
Value
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars, $2,900 – The Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league. According to PFF, Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) is one of the worst quarterbacks when under pressure.
Other Options – Jets D/ST ($2,600)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.