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Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Joe Burrow ($6,700) — Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700) — Alvin Kamara ($6,700)
The Saints' defense is coming off a game where they allowed Geno Smith ($5,700) to throw for a whopping 10.71 yards per pass attempt and three TDs on just 25 actual passes. They also allowed Seattle's elite WR duo to dominate the game and go for 192 yards and three TDs on just 10 catches. Much like last season, the New Orleans defense has employed a true funnel-to-the-pass kind of scheme and been a big play factory for opposing passing offenses in the secondary. Wide receivers have converted on 75% of their targets against the Saints over the last two weeks, a span in which they’ve allowed four WRs to go for 15.0 DKFP or more against them.
This all speaks to the fact that this is a fantastic week to buy low on Ja’Marr Chase. Despite Tee Higgins ($6,300) looking very questionable for this game (he only played partially last week and had zero catches) Chase remains a low sentiment target for Week 6. He and Joe Burrow are currently projecting to be well outside the top-five owned players at their positions and are far more affordable than some of the other top QB-WR combos around the league this week. The Bengals' offensive line has had its issues protecting Burrow this year but they’ve had bigger issues in getting the run game going. With Joe Mixon ($6,900) averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season we should see a pass-heavy game plan in this spot and a potential breakout game against a weaker secondary for both Burrow and Chase.
On the flip side, it was also encouraging to see Alvin Kamara ($6,700) post his first solid game of the season for the Saints last week — and to do so in a game where Taysom Hill ($5,100) scored four times. Kamara played on 73% of the snaps against Seattle, his largest workload of the year, and only ceded nine touches to Mark Ingram ($5,000), who produced less than 2.0 YPC. With Hill now banged up and questionable for this Sunday, Kamara’s red-zone usage should go up against the Bengals who were one of the worst teams in covering against the RB position in the pass game last season. The fact we can still get Kamara at under $7,000 after a 29-touch game is reason enough to roster him this week and using him as a comeback play, in a lower-owned Chase-Burrow stack, makes too much sense for Week 6.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($7,300)
It’s insane to think that we have a game this week between Kyler Murray and Geno Smith and it’s Smith who is projecting as the heavy chalk pick at quarterback. Nothing against the former first-round draft pick, but the Seattle defense has been an ATM machine this year for fantasy purposes and now will have to deal with their first true elite running quarterback when the Cardinals visit the Pacific Northwest. Murray’s yards per pass attempt have been disappointing this season (he ranks last in the league at 5.8) but there should be bigger plays on the docket against Seattle, which is last defensively in that metric at 8.4 yards per pass attempt allowed.
Arizona is also getting healthier and Rondale Moore ($4,200) offers good after-the-catch ability at WR and should help Murray’s overall yardage in this game. With steady rushing numbers (he had a season-high 42 yards on the ground last week) a great opponent and everyone keen on rostering the QB on the other side of this game, Murray sets up as a great lower-owned leverage play at quarterback for Week 6.
Running Back
Top End: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings ($5,700)
The Dolphins enter this game with the intention to start third-stringer Skylar Thompson ($5,000) at quarterback. That means we should see them attempt to “establish the run” and lean heavily on the services of Raheem Mostert, who has taken over, for all intents and purposes, as the lead back in Miami. Mostert has averaged a 70% snap count and 16.5 carries over the last two weeks. Minnesota has been average from a yards allowed standpoint against opposing running backs but has ceded five rushing TDs to the position and hasn’t faced an elite rusher yet. Mostert skipped practice Wednesday but returned Thursday and looks set to take on another heavy workload. At under $6,000 he has real potential to end up as a leader at his position and is getting significantly less heat than Kenneth Walker ($5,400), who projects as the slate chalk.
Value: Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($4,600)
Darrel Williams (doubtful) looks certain to miss time this week. The trickle-down effect will mean Eno Benjamin — who looked strong in the preseason — should settle into a significant role alongside James Conner ($6,100 — questionable). Benjamin would obviously vault into heavy chalk if Conner ends up missing the game, as well, but even if Conner does suit up I would not shy away from using him against Seattle. He stepped in and played 54% of the snaps last week and has been the Cardinals' most productive back overall, averaging 4.5 YPC to this point and over 8.0 yards per catch. Seattle got brutalized on the ground last week by the Saints, so even if he remains a part-time player there should be plenty of opportunity for Benjamin to pay off at this price.
Wide Receiver
Top end: Deebo Samuel San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons ($7,600)
The 49ers are taking on one of the worst secondaries in the league this week, the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game so far to opposing WRs and should make for a great bounce-back opponent for Deebo Samuel, who saved a poor day against Carolina last week with a TD. Samuel has again produced elite usage and after-the-catch numbers with Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) at quarterback as he enters this game with a 27% team target share and sixth in the NFL in yards after the catch. At $7,600, most DFS players may scoff at paying up for a 49ers offensive player, but Samuel is truly the heartbeat of the 49ers’ offense> He is also projected for 25.25 points this week, as of writing. Paying up is a good way to be contrarian and get exposure to a player capable of ending the day as a top-three points producer.
Value: George Pickens Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,600)
Despite seeing eight targets in each of his last two games and producing 15.4 yards per catch on 12 receptions, the sentiment on George Pickens has yet to really yet to take off. While it would be understandable if his DraftKings salary had skyrocketed, he remains under $5,000 for this game — a game that will also be quarterback Kenny Pickett’s ($5,200) first home game as a Steeler. While Pickens was third on Pittsburgh last week in targets he was also the most efficient with his targets and could see an increased snap rate if Diontae Johnson ($5,700 — questionable) isn’t 100%. Tampa Bay’s strong rush defense and fast pace of play on offense should result in decent volume again. Big weeks are ahead for the downfield threat and buying in while the sentiment is still just lukewarm is a good strategy for Week 6.
Tight End
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals ($3,000)
Just like last week, let’s keep targeting Arizona’s blitz-heavy defense, which has made the Cardinals one of the worst teams at covering tight ends this year. So far Arizona has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs this season but also leads the league in receptions allowed at 36. Tight ends are converting targets at a 76% completion rate against the Cardinals and we also have the talented Noah Fant coming off his best game as a Seahawk, where he grabbed three receptions for 49 yards on a season-high five targets.
Fant’s five targets might not seem like much but Geno Smith only threw the ball 25 times, so Fant ended up with a 20% team target share. He also outplayed Will Dissly ($3,100), whose snap count went down last well as well. If there’s a chance that Fant can actually break out and separate himself as the top pass-catching option at his position for Seattle, it should happen this week. Using him as a min-priced upside play against the Cardinals' weaker coverage unit makes sense when you’re looking to go low at TE.
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins ($2,700) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Last week we targeted a weaker NFC North team traveling East to take on an AFC East team in the Patriots. That resulted in 22.0 DKFP for us and New England’s DST ending up as one of the must-plays of Week 5. This week we’ll try the same trick.
Minnesota is coming off a lucky win against the Bears, where they nearly gave the game away late after a quick start. Miami’s banged up on offense and should be looking to control this game with their run game and the resurgent Raheem Mostert. While their pressure rate hasn’t been great this year, eight of the nine sacks they’ve recorded have come at home and Kirk Cousins remains a dome-friendly quarterback with four of his five INTs this year coming outdoors.
Miami’s defense has posted two solid games for fantasy purposes (both at home) and will be looking to carry the team this week with rookie Skylar Thompson starting under center. Look to them as a nice low-owned play in big fields who will have a chance to replicate the success we had with New England in this spot last week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.