clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Commanders vs. Bears DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Commanders and the Bears with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

I’m not sure what we as a society did to deserve watching the Washington Commanders play the Chicago Bears in a primetime slot, but I highly suggest repenting or attempting to swing your personal karma over the next few days. Heck, from the sounds of it, even Ron Rivera is tired of having to witness the exploits of Carson Wentz ($10,600) — so why should I be any different?

Let’s dive into this regrettable Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (WAS vs CHI)


Captain’s Picks

Curtis Samuel ($12,300 CP) - In a game that could be incredibly underwhelming from an offensive perspective, there’s something to be said about investing in a stable floor. For all the faults of the Commanders’ aerial attack in 2022, Samuel’s been healthy and consistent, and at this point in the season, he almost seems to be the team’s No. 1 receiver. Obviously, that’s somewhat ignoring the presence of Terry McLaurin ($9,000); however, there’s yet to be a week where Samuel hasn’t seen a higher share of Washington’s intended targets than his teammate. In fact, Samuel’s overall target rate of 23% dwarfs McLaurin’s mark of just 16%. Samuel also leads the Commanders in red zone targets (4), while he’s been featured in the rushing game, as well. Simply put, the 26-year-old has a lot of paths to DFS relevance.

Commanders D/ST ($5,400 CP) - This is a clear case of Washington’s lone strength being in direct opposition with Chicago’s biggest weakness. Well, the Bears aren’t really good at anything, but the team’s offensive line has been particularly horrendous. Chicago currently owns the worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL at 16.4%. For the sake of comparison, the Giants sit 31st with an adjusted sack rate of 10.2%. The Bears are in their own stratosphere. Justin Fields ($10,000) is one of five QBs to have been sacked at least 18 times so far in 2022. Fields has dropped back to pass 129 times. The other four pivots? Well over 200. It’s honestly insane how poorly Chicago is at protecting the former first-round pick. The Commanders collected five sacks in Week 5 and their defensive line sits fourth in the league in defensive adjusted sack rate (9.6%). They’re going to live in the Bears’ backfield on Thursday.

FLEX Plays

David Montgomery ($10,400) - Here’s the distinction I need to make with Montgomery right off the hop: He’s viable, but I don’t think you want to use him as a Captain. In other words, the volume is certainly going to be there, yet I have serious question marks about the efficiency and the ceiling. Let’s start with the good. Montgomery played 72.0% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in Week 5, indicating he’s back at full health after missing Week 4. Montgomery’s now logged at least a 65% snap share in all three games he’s finished in 2022, while averaging a very respectable 17.7 touches in those contests. The bad news? He produced fewer than 2.0 yards per attempt in two of those weeks and he’s reliant on an offense that’s registered a paltry 2.2 red zone trips per game — the second-lowest mark in the NFC. The pass catching keeps him afloat in a full-point PPR setting, yet this about the worst situation a “bell cow” back could be in.

Cairo Santos ($4,400) - Despite the viability of the unit due to matchup, I would like to point out that the Commanders defense hasn’t been amazing so far this season. Washington’s sits 18th in opponent yards per play (5.6) and 20th in defensive DVOA. The Commanders have been fine, and they’ll definitely get to Fields, but I do think the Bears can find a little success moving the ball between the 20s. That’s where Santos comes in. The kicker is a perfect 7-for-7 in 2022, which includes three kicks of over 50 yards. Chicago isn’t afraid to settle for three points, either. Entering Week 6, 21.6% of the Bears’ drives have ended in a field goal — the third-highest rate in the NFL.


Antonio Gibson ($8,600) - It’s over. If you had Gibson in a re-draft setting, your window to get value out of the RB closed as soon as Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,600) made this awesome entrance on Sunday. That’s not to say that Robinson is now a fantasy stud, it’s just that this backfield suddenly got a lot more congested. Between Gibson, Robinson and J.D. McKissic ($6,400) in last weekend’s loss to the Titans, no Washington running back garnered more than 26 of the team’s 63 offensive snaps. None of the three assets finished with double-digit touches. There’s a chance that Robinson’s role increases slightly as he gets his legs back under him, but I think that stat line is a pretty telling sign of things to come. Avoid this positional grouping at all costs.


Though I would never say I have confidence in either of these teams, I feel pretty strongly that the Commanders come out on top this Thursday. It’s a simple matter of an advantage in the trenches. Washington’s defensive line should control this contest and consistently put the Bears behind the sticks. As long as Wentz doesn’t do anything too egregious, the Commanders should be fine.

Final Score: Washington 20, Chicago 13

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (WAS vs CHI)

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.