Bills vs. Chiefs this week. That is all.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points - BUF/KC (54) and ARI/SEA (51). There are six games with a total below 45. There is one double-digit favorite - LAR -10.5 over CAR. There are six games that are within a field goal.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, $8,200 — Allen is the Alpha and Omega of the Bills offense. Buffalo has blown out three of its first five opponents. Allen has still gotten his but he hasn’t been asked to push the Nos button. The training staff may need to pack an extra bottle or two for this week’s matchup against the Chiefs, who will likely score points and force Buffalo to continue being aggressive.
Allen has scored at least 30 DKFP in four of five games and has 11 rushes inside the red zone. He has exceeded point expectations in 50% of his games.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,100), Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), Kyler Murray ($7,300)
Value
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals, $5,700 —Over the past three games, Smith has scored 22.9, 34.7 and 24.02 DKFP, throwing for two, two and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 10.7 yards per attempt in the last two contests. Geno is cooking! Arizona is 27th in pass-defense DVOA while Seattle is 29th. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 51 so plenty of points should be put up.
Other Options – Tom Brady ($6,300)
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens, $7,700 — Barkley only played 69% of the snaps last week, but that was due to suffering a shoulder injury. He did return to that game so all is good on that front. Prior to last week, Barkley received 80% of the snaps in every contest with over 90% in weeks three and four. He is essentially the Alpha for the Giants' offense, as he dominates the red zone looks, gets the majority of the carries and is involved in the passing game.
He gets a plush matchup in Week 6 as the Ravens are 26th in rush-defense DVOA while allowing the second-most receptions to running backs. Baltimore is favored by 5 points, so the Giants will likely have to maintain aggression. The game also has a healthy total of 45 points.
Other Options – Nick Chubb ($8,200), Leonard Fournette ($7,400)
Value
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns, $6,000 – Stevenson will likely be the highest-rostered running back on the slate, and for good reason. Damien Harris will miss multiple weeks due to injury and the backfield looks to be his. Last week, he rushed 25 times for 161 yards and caught both of his targets. In addition, Mac Jones could return at quarterback for the Patriots, which could make the offense more efficient.
The matchup is pristine as Cleveland is dead-last in rush-defense DVOA. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns and two through the air.
Other Options – Jeff Wilson Jr. ($6,200), Devin Singletary ($5,900)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers, $9,700 — Kupp has received at least 10 targets and exceeded 100 yards in four of five games this season. He is Stafford’s blankie and will continue to keep him warm and fuzzy.
The Rams have had trouble with defenses that can apply pressure. That shouldn’t be an issue this week as Carolina is 30th in adjusted sack rate.
Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($8,400), Marquise Brown ($7,200), DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Value
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, $3,700 – Jamison Crowder was placed on injured reserve while Isaiah McKenzie and Jake Kumerow were unable to play last week due to injury. As a result, Shakir played in 70% of the snaps and caught three of five targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. Allen trusts him and he put some “make a play” passes on him. If McKenzie and Kumerow play, then reassess this play as the snaps could be depressed.
Other Options – Rondale Moore ($4,200), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants, $7,000 – Kelce will likely be the highest-rostered tight end due to his four-touchdown performance last week as well as his matchup vs. the Bills this week having the highest total. The Bills are first in DVOA against tight ends and haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position, though.
Andrews has received at least 10 targets and exceeded 20 DKFP in three of five contests. The Giants are 25th in DVOA against tight ends and Andrews has a similar ceiling to Kelce at what could be lower ownership.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($7,800)
Value
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, $4,900 – Ertz doesn’t have the upside of a Kelce or an Andrews as he’s exceeded 50 yards only once and has two touchdowns on the season. He has received at least 10 targets in three games, though, and has produced double-digit DKFP in every contest this season.
Seattle has the 31st pass-defense DVOA and are dead-last against tight ends.
Other Options – Tyler Higbee ($4,600), Will Dissly ($3,100)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Rams DST vs. Carolina Panthers, $4,100 – The Panthers have fired their coach and will likely have backup PJ Walker under center. Ruh roh. To make matters worse, Carolina has allowed the fifth-most pressure while Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams’ defense will be licking their chops after two consecutive losses.
Other Options – Packers DST ($4,000), 49ers DST ($3,700), Bills DST ($2,700)
Value
Saints DST vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $2,800 – The Saints are 10th in rush-defense DVOA and 12th in adjusted sack rate. The Bengals are 27th in allowing pressure. If the Saints can make the Bengals one-dimensional, the unit could rack up some points. Burrow did have a four-interception game in the opener against the Steelers and got sacked seven times. In the following contest, he got sacked six times by the Cowboys.
The Saints DST has 10 sacks, four fumble recovries and one interception.
Other Options – Dolphins DST ($2,700)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.