clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

MLB Predictions for The Free $20K T-Mobile Home Run Derby Pool on DraftKings

Steve Buchanan gives his predictions the Free $20K T-Mobile Home Run Derby Pool.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Before the MLB All-Star Game takes place, one of the best traditions will happen before that, the Home Run Derby. This year, the field is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. We have a huge range of players in this one, ranging from a first-timer like Julio Rodriguez, all the way to the seasoned veteran in Albert Pujols. You can play for free for your share of $20,000 by making your own predictions made in our pool, brought to you by T-Mobile.

Enter the T-Mobile $20K Free To Play Home Run Derby Pool here.

Who Will Win the Home Run Derby?

This, in my opinion, is one of the hardest events to pin down. The field is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. I mean, how can you confidently say that one person will win when we have so many to choose from? When it all comes down to it, I think Kyle Schwarber is going to be the one to take it down.

He’s been on a home run hitting tear since the calendar turned to June, hitting 18 home runs over that stretch. He’s about to smash his career-high in home runs set in 2019 when he hit 38 through 155 games. Heading into the All-Star break, Schwarber has 29 through just 89 games. Getting thrown meatballs for three minutes is going to have him looking like a kid in a candy store, and he should be launching bombs all throughout that time period. As of Sunday, Schwarber is ranked in the 96th percentile in both average and max exit velocity and the 100th percentile in Barrel %. He’ll have to overcome some extremely hard competition, like the reigning champion Pete Alonso, but I really believe that Schwarber is the one to take.

Refer a friend and get a free DraftKings Sportsbook bet up to $100! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!

Who will hit the longest home run?

All of the participants in this Home Run Derby have some serious pop. In fact, we’ve seen at least a 447 foot home run from each and every participant. Currently, amongst the group, the player with the longest home run is Pete Alonso, who hit one 489 feet. He did this back in 2019 off Twins reliever Matt Magill, which was just over a week after Alosno won that Derby. Alonso is one of the biggest favorites to win this event outright but even if he can’t pull that down, he’s one of the safest plays when asking who will hit the longest. Like Schwarber, Alonso is in the 98 percentile for Max Exit Velocity and 89 percentile in Barrel %.

How far will Pete Alonso advance?

As the second seed, Alonso is matched up against Ronald Acuna Jr. With injuries derailing his season, Acuna only has logged eight through 58 games. Don’t get it twisted though, Acuna is not someone to sleep on being in the seventh seed. That being said, if Alonso can take him down in the first round, he’ll have to face the winner of the Corey Seager and Julio Rodriguez matchup. I think Rodriguez is a great dark horse in this contest, as the 21-year-old has already made a major impact since making the Opening Day roster. If Rodriguez can make it out of the first round, I think he has a legitimate chance of going to the end. That being said, it’s hard to go out against the Polar Bear, who is looking to earn his third-straight Home Run Derby title. With me answering that Schwarber is going to win it all, I’ll take Alonso to be eliminated in the finals.

How many home runs will Pete Alonso hit in the quarterfinals?

The number for this question is set at 18.5. It’s worth noting that the numbers from last year are always going to be inflated because it took place at Coors Field. Alonso is a great example of this, as he had 14 home runs in Cleveland in 2019 but hit 35 (!) in the first round last year. It was a new record for the most in a first round and the third-most for any round of the Derby. We also have two very different ballparks from 2019 to 2022, as Progressive Field is a smaller ballpark than Dodger Stadium. Dodger Stadium measurements from left filed to right field are 330, 360, 375, 400, 375, 360, 330. Progressive Field is 325, 370, 400, 410, 375, 325. I think 18.5 feels too high to take the over on, so I think taking the under is the better play for this question. I have no doubt that Alonso will come close to this number but I think it’s been set a bit too high.

How far will Kyle Schwarber advance?

As mentioned earlier, I’m taking Schwarber to win this event. Naturally, I would be answering him to win the Home Run Derby.

How many home runs will Kyle Schwarber hit in the quarterfinals?

Again, I’m going a bit under on this 18.5 total. I feel as if people will see the lofty numbers from last year and think these are easy overs. It would not shock me if Schwarber was one of the hitters that could go over this 18.5 total but I think it’s set a bit too high to confidently take the over, especially in a place like Dodger Stadium. I’m once again going to take the under 18.5 number.

Longest Home Run hit?

The number for this is set at 506.5 feet. One of the longest home runs in the Derby history was hit last year by Juan Soto. Using that thin Colorado air to his advantage. Soto smashed a 520-foot bomb to put himself in the record books. Amazingly, it wasn’t the longest in Home Run Derby history, as that honor belongs to Sammy Sosa. Back in 2002, Sosa hit one 524 feet in Milwaukee, which was truly a feat that needs to be seen. I’ve mentioned many times that this field is stacked from top to bottom, so I would not be surprised if someone absolutely crushes one that can exceed that 506.5 foot total set for this question.

Remaining questions and predictions:

How far will Ronald Acuna Jr advance?
Prediction: Eliminated in Quarterfinals

Who will advance further? Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Tie?
Prediction: Tie

Who will advance further? Ronald Acuna Jr, Corey Seager, Tie?
Prediction: Tie

Enter the T-Mobile $20K Free To Play Home Run Derby Pool here.

Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.