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Should you fade Christian McCaffrey in Super Bowl 58 DFS?

We take a look at if you should fade Christian McCaffrey in showdown contests on DraftKings for Chiefs vs. 49ers in the Super Bowl.

Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers rushes during the NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Lions 34-31. Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

The 58th Super Bowl is here and it is time to build our DFS lineups for the Big Game! DraftKings Showdowns are my favorite way to play single games, so we’ll lean into that as we look at the question I am posing to you and myself today —

Should you fade Christian McCaffrey in DFS?

The Chiefs one defensive weakness is against running backs, both in the run game and passing game. They rank 21st in DVOA against receiving backs and 27th in DVOA against the run.

The 49ers, in neutral game scripts, had one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league. McCaffrey also had the most opportunities, most red zone looks, highest running back target share and of course most yards, touchdowns and fantasy points for his position.

In multiple entry tournaments, you can fade CMC, as you can fade any player when widening your player pool and throwing some darts. If you can hold him to a below average game, which would still be a good game for most backs, you have a shot at gaining those points elsewhere for a discounted price and for lower roster percentages. It’s not a high percentage shot, but it’s a shot. But when it comes down to it, I’ll have him in most of my lineups with just a few lottery ticket lineups without him.

To Captain or Flex, that is the question

There is no doubt that McCaffrey will be rostered at the highest percentage across all types of DK games. The question for most will be if you put him at the captain’s spot or in the flex spot. Putting anyone else at the captain’s spot is kind of like fading McCaffrey in this game. But, you’ll need to find that one player who will score more DK points for it to work. There are plenty of candidates, but Deebo Samuel is my pick, as he is a monster in the red zone and sees work as a runner and receiver. Of course, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Brandon Aiyuk Greg Kittle, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy all have the ability to put up big games as well. And if the game is low scoring, they don’t need to put up huge numbers. In the end, I’ll have McCaffrey and Samuel sitting in the Captain’s seat much more than anyone else.

This article can also be found in our Ultimate Guide to Super Bowl 58, presented by Frank’s Red Hot.