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Best bets to win Super Bowl 58 MVP

We give out our picks for the Super Bowl LVIII MVP on Sunday night.

Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers rushes during the NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Lions 34-31. Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

Super Bowl 58 will give us a rematch of a recent championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. Historically, when betting on Super Bowl MVP, it’s almost always a good call to go with one of the QBs. In this case, we have the best QB on the planet in Patrick Mahomes vs. well, Brock Purdy. Aside from that, there are plenty of solid-skill position players to bet on for Super Bowl MVP. Let’s look at some of our favorite picks to win the award.

Super Bowl 58 MVP picks

Patrick Mahomes — +125

If you’re placing a bigger bet, Mahomes is the easiest choice. The only knock is that the Chiefs are somehow not favored in this game yet. That’s as of Thursday, Feb. 1, so things can change, but still. Mahomes has to be one of the only players in NFL history to be favored to win Super Bowl MVP but have his team not favored to win the game. The odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are close enough that we can still safely back Mahomes.

The key here may be the Chiefs' defense. If Kansas City wins, it’ll be because of the defense as a collective. Which would shut down the 49ers’ offensive skill players. If that happens, it’s a pretty easy path for Mahomes to win the award. He’s done it twice before, including last season. In both of those games, Mahomes failed to reach 300 passing yards. So long as the Chiefs score around four TDs and win the game, the odds are Mahomes will take home MVP. There’s also not a lot of realistic competition on the Chiefs for SB MVP. It’s Travis Kelce (+1200), Isiah Pacheco (+2800) and Rashee Rice (+5000).

Pacheco would have to absolutely dominate the ball, and the Chiefs’ offense just doesn’t work that way. Kelce and Rice need Mahomes to play well to have a case. So that almost negates them in a way. Maybe not Kelce as much. So Mahomes is the favorite and clear-cut option if you think Kansas City should win.

Christian McCaffrey — +475

CMC is the best value of any player on the board. He should be the favorite over QB Brock Purdy at +225. At least in our opinion. McCaffrey is a shoo-in for 20+ touches, which should lead any 49ers’ skill position player by a wide margin. McCaffrey has scored a TD in 15 of 18 games played this season. If we look at history and RBs winning this award, it doesn’t happen often. In fact, a RB or FB has won SB MVP just seven times in the history of the game. But the few RBs who did win SB MVP were elite. That group includes Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith, John Riggins, Marcus Allen and Franco Harris. All of those players are in the Hall of Fame, somewhere CMC should end up at some point in the future.

It seems for a RB to win SB MVP, there are some clear requirements. Going for over 100 rushing yards seems to be one. Scoring at least one TD as well, but most RBs who won SB MVP scored multiple times. And the last is to go big, either rushing for over 150 yards or over 150 total yards. By that criteria, CMC put up a SB MVP-worthy performance in about 15 of 18 games this season. He’s scored multiple TDs in each of the 49ers’ playoff wins during this run. If there was an MVP for San Fran in either of its playoff games so far, it’s CMC.

There doesn’t seem to be a scenario where the 49ers win the game and the Chiefs shut down CMC, but fail to stifle Purdy. If San Francisco is going to win this game, it’s through McCaffrey. His anytime TD prop line is up to -225, which is insane. McCaffrey has better odds to score multiple TDs at +225 than win MVP, and you’d think if he does score multiple TDs and the 49ers win, he’d be getting SB MVP.

George Kittle — +6000

If you’re going to take a shot at a punt play, Kittle is the best option of the bunch. We know he’s going to want the ball and want to step up in this spot after the 49ers lost in Super Bowl 54. We know the Chiefs will focus on stopping CMC and Deebo Samuel. Kittle should get a lot of free range out there and should be heavily targeted by Purdy. We also know Kittle’s ceiling is multiple TDs.

If you look at the Chiefs schedule, aside from Week 1 vs. rookie phenom Sam LaPorta, they didn’t face any TEs close to Kittle. There aren’t many elite TEs in the NFL anymore and Kansas City has had the best of that group for the last 10 seasons or so. But Kittle will definitely be a test in this game. If the Niners win, Kittle, CMC, or an obscure defensive player will end up winning SB MVP.

This article can also be found in our Ultimate Guide to Super Bowl 58, presented by Frank’s Red Hot.