clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NCAA Bracketology: Quad 1 wins and records for bubble teams, upcoming key games

We break down each bubble team’s opportunities to grab Quadrant 1 wins in the final month of the season.

NCAA Basketball: St. Mary’s at Gonzaga James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

February has arrived, which means we have just over a month remaining in the college basketball regular season before conference playoffs begin and the NCAA Tournament bids begin to roll in. While there is still plenty of basketball to be played, early bracketology projections are rolling out from week to week as we see more in-game results play out and the great teams attempt to separate from the good.

Here we’ll take a look at teams currently projected to be on the bubble (spanning from last four in to first four out), and whether these teams will have a chance to prove themselves in the eyes of the tournament selectors in the coming weeks.

For bubble teams to reach the tournament, they generally need some quality wins, which are referred to in this instance as Quadrant 1 wins. College basketball teams are divided into four quadrants in NET rankings as a way to determine the strength of each team’s wins and losses. A team can earn a Quad 1 win if they defeat a team ranked No. 1-No. 30 in NET rankings at home, a team ranked No. 1-No. 50 in NET rankings at a neutral site, and a team ranked No. 1-No. 75 in NET rankings on the road. Quad 1 wins are a major deciding factor for at-large bids come tournament time.

Some bubble teams are in stronger conferences, which effectively guarantees them several shots at Quad 1 teams toward the end of the season. Whether or not they can win them is the question. Other teams, like Richmond, Drake, Saint Mary’s, and Nebraska, need to take advantage of the few Quad 1 opponents they face as a way to earn their spots in the field of 68.

Here is a list of each bubble team’s future regular season Quad 1 opportunities from now until March as NET rankings stand on February 5, with their current Quad 1 record included.

Boise State (5-4)

@ Colorado State, 2/6
@ Utah State, 2/10
vs. New Mexico, 3/2
@ San Diego State, 3/8

Butler (3-6)

@ UConn, 2/6
vs. Marquette, 2/13
vs. Creighton, 2/17
@ Villanova, 2/20
@ Seton Hall, 2/24

Cincinnati (2-4)

vs. Houston, 2/10
vs. Iowa State, 2/13
@ UCF, 2/17
@ TCU, 2/24
@ Houston, 2/27
@ Oklahoma, 3/5

Colorado (1-4)

vs. Arizona, 2/10
@ Oregon, 3/7

Drake (1-1)

@ Bradley, 2/10

Florida (1-7)

vs. Auburn, 2/10
@ Alabama, 2/21
@ South Carolina, 3/2
vs. Alabama, 3/5

Gonzaga (0-5)

@ Kentucky, 2/10
@ San Francisco, 2/29
@ Saint Mary’s, 3/2

Kansas State (1-3)

vs. Kansas, 2/5
@ BYU, 2/10
@ Texas, 2/19
vs. BYU, 2/24
@ Cincinnati, 3/2
@ Kansas, 3/5
vs. Iowa State, 3/9

Memphis (1-2)

@ SMU, 2/18
vs. FAU, 2/25
@ FAU, 3/9

Michigan State (2-7)

vs. Illinois, 2/10
@ Purdue, 3/2

Mississippi State (3-6)

vs. Kentucky, 2/27
@ Auburn, 3/2
@ Texas A&M, 3/6

Nebraska (3-4)

@ Northwestern, 2/7
@ Ohio State, 2/29

Nevada (3-2)

@ Utah State, 2/6
vs. San Diego State, 2/9
vs. New Mexico, 2/13
@ Colorado State, 2/27
@ Boise State, 3/5

Oregon (2-4)

@ Arizona, 3/2
vs. Colorado, 3/7

Providence (3-5)

vs. Creighton, 2/7
@ Butler, 2/10
@ Xavier, 2/21
@ Marquette, 2/28
vs. UConn, 3/9

Richmond (1-2)

N/A

Saint Mary’s (4-3)

vs. Gonzaga, 3/2

Seton Hall (4-4)

@ Villanova, 2/11
@ St. John’s, 2/18
@ Creighton, 2/28
@ UConn, 3/3

Texas (4-4)

vs. Iowa State, 2/6
@ Houston, 2/17
@ Kansas, 2/24
@Texas Tech, 2/27
@ Baylor, 3/4

Texas A&M (4-4)

vs. Tennessee, 2/10
@ Alabama, 2/17
@ Tennessee, 2/24
@ Ole Miss, 3/9

Villanova (3-5)

@ Xavier, 2/7
@ UConn, 2/24
@ Providence, 3/2
@ Seton Hall, 3/6
vs. Creighton, 3/9

Virginia (2-2)

@ Virginia Tech, 2/19
vs. UNC, 2/24
@ Duke, 3/2

Virginia Tech (2-7)

@ UNC, 2/17
@ Pitt, 2/24

Wake Forest (0-3)

@ Duke, 2/12
@ Virginia, 2/17
vs. Duke, 2/24
@ Virginia Tech, 3/2

Washington State (4-3)

@ Oregon, 2/10
@ Arizona, 2/22