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How the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 58

The Chiefs are slight underdogs in Super Bowl 58. We break down what Kansas City needs to do to bring home the Lombardi Trophy on Super Bowl Sunday.

Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

Super Bowl 58 will pit the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers, a matchup we saw happen recently. These two teams competed for the Lombardi Trophy not too long ago in Super Bowl 54, Kansas City pulling off a comeback in the second half to win 31-20.

After an up-and-down regular season, the Chiefs were able to turn it on in the playoffs, defeating the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens en route to their fourth Super Bowl berth in the past five seasons. Kansas City’s path to the Super Bowl was quite impressive but we should have never underestimated QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. Now, Mahomes and Reid have a chance to add a third championship to their trophy case. But how can the Chiefs get past the Niners and to victory? We’re going over how Kansas City can win Super Bowl 58.

How can the Chiefs win Super Bowl 58?

Patrick Mahomes

To put it simply, great QBs rise to the occasion and win the big games. When you look at Mahomes alone, he’s already being compared to the likes of Tom Brady. We seemed to count Brady out late in his career and all he did was go on to win a few more championships. Mahomes is in his prime, where Brady thrived and won plenty. Despite having his worst regular season in the NFL, Mahomes still managed to show up big against the Bills and Ravens to reach the Super Bowl again. It’s that type of perseverance and resolve that make him the best in the business.

So when we look at QB matchups in the Super Bowl, more times than not the better QB ends up on top. Nothing against Brock Purdy. He’s a great game manager and is surrounded by talented coaches and skill position players. But the ball is in his hands and he has to make the plays to win a game. Mahomes has such a big advantage over Purdy in what he can do physically and mentally. It’s a big reason why Mahomes is favored to win the SB58 MVP despite the Chiefs being underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The main reason the Chiefs will win (and lose) is Mahomes.

Andy Reid

Say what you want about Reid but he’s the best head coach in the NFL right now. This is the first postseason in which Mahomes and Reid have had to go on the road to get to the Super Bowl. All they did was go into Buffalo and Baltimore and come out on top. That’s pretty impressive and it starts with Reid. This is perhaps one of his better coaching jobs in the NFL. The Chiefs faced some adversity in the regular season with some bad calls (Bills, Packers) and also dropped a few unorthodox games at home (Eagles, Raiders).

Still, the Chiefs were able to win the AFC West division with relative ease. No one really questioned whether the Chiefs would win the division and make the playoffs. What was being questioned was whether they could go out and get back to the Super Bowl with this team. And make no mistake, this is the worst team Reid has had in Kansas City. At least on the offensive side of the ball. Mahomes had his worst statistical season and the Chiefs had very little in terms of offensive personnel, but they still finished top-10 in total yards. That didn’t translate to points in the regular season but it’s worked out so far in the playoffs. Again, a testament to Reid.

When you look at the coaching matchup. On one side you have Reid, the defending Super Bowl champion and a coach who has made it to this stage in four of the past five seasons. On the other side, you have Kyle Shanahan, the offensive coordinator responsible for the biggest collapse in NFL history (perhaps in sports). Shanahan has shaken that off a bit but the first two games for the Niners in the playoffs weren’t encouraging. Shanahan has also lost to Reid in the Super Bowl before. In a game, the Niners led 20-10 at halftime.

So if we’re looking at QB and head coach, it’s 2-0 Chiefs so far.

Travis Kelce

The 49ers have a stable of great offensive skill position players. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The Chiefs have Kelce, who will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and arguably the best tight end in NFL history. At 34 years old, Kelce still has it. He was the best player in the AFC Championship vs. the Ravens, making a few insane catches that helped Kansas City win. He started the season on the mend and was able to rebound, playing in 15 games and nearly going for over 1,000 receiving yards, something he had done in each of the previous seven seasons.

This 49ers defense is a bit overrated. We’re used to seeing San Fran roll out strong defensive units and that has created somewhat of a mirage. The Niners have given up an average of 26 points per game in two playoff contests and have had to come back down at least a TD in each game. When it comes to the Chiefs, the 49ers may not be able to afford a slow start or a scenario where they need to come back. And the guy there to stop that comeback will likely be Kelce, making a huge grab through traffic for a first down.

In a draft of skill position players for these two teams, Kelce should go No. 1 overall 9 times out of 10. If it’s the final drive and it comes down to Mahomes needing to make a throw, you know Kelce is going to be there to make a play.

Defense

The Chiefs aren’t in the Super Bowl without this defense and DC Steve Spagnuolo. Aside from Kelce, the defense was the MVP of the AFC Championship. Kansas City sat on a 17-7 lead for an entire half of football against an offense that was considered one of the best in the NFL in 2023. They held the soon-to-be NFL MVP to 272 yards for one TD, one INT and a lost fumble. Most importantly, QB Lamar Jackson only ran for 54 yards on eight carries in the Ravens’ loss. Aside from a few big plays in the passing game, the Chiefs completely shut down Baltimore.

The Chiefs did a great job shutting down the Bills and Dolphins’ passing games, respectively. Kansas City is well-rounded on defense with quality pass-rushers George Karlaftis, Chris Jones and Mike Danna. DE Charles Omenihu tearing his ACL is a bit of a blow but the Chiefs have players who can step up. CB L’Jarius Sneed has been a solid shutdown corner. Nick Bolton leads the LB group against the run and was huge in the AFC Championship with Willie Gay sidelined.

The Chiefs have done a great job of disrupting the QB. Spagnuolo was fine throwing blitzes at Jackson all day in the AFC Championship. That scheme was able to thwart the MVP and Bills QB Josh Allen. Purdy should be much more vulnerable and prone to mistakes than those two top AFC QBs. Opponents have only been able to get to Purdy three times in two games this postseason. Kansas City’s path to victory will be by rushing the QB and forcing mistakes. The other animal is containing Christian McCaffrey.

That will be difficult, especially if Gay is ruled out for the Super Bowl. But last week the Chiefs forced the Ravens into just 16 rushing plays for 81 yards. Despite the Bills running rampant for 182 yards on 39 carries in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs were stout on third down and made a few big plays when needed. The focus should be on limiting CMC’s big plays while forcing Purdy to beat them through the air. The Chiefs have a good enough pass rush and secondary to accomplish all of this.

Final Thoughts

It’s just the Chiefs. Again, it feels a lot like the Patriots dynasty, where Brady was just willing the team to the Super Bowl and then they’d take care of business. For Reid, it’s a chance to be considered one of the best head coaches in NFL history. For Mahomes, same deal, he’s already being talked about in the same light as Brady. Three Super Bowl wins in four trips is a good start at age 28. Kelce can get a third ring and walk off into the sunset with possibly his fiancee Taylor Swift. A lot of people have turned the Chiefs into the enemy, similar to what we did with Brady and the Pats. It’s weird because before the Chiefs started winning, we loved seeing Mahomes make insane plays. Kelce makes insane catches. Kansas City building something special. The Chiefs have motivation on all sides and it’s still very early in the Mahomes-Reid dynasty. A third Super Bowl victory isn’t the end game. It’s just the beginning.

This article can also be found in our Ultimate Guide to Super Bowl 58, presented by Frank’s Red Hot.