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Super Bowl prop bets: Best bets for rushing yard over/under in Super Bowl 58

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering over/under odds on individual rushing yards at Super Bowl 58. We break down some best bets.

Isiah Pacheco #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates during the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers will play the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, February 11. Both teams have great defenses but are known for their prolific offenses. Kansas City’s mainly revolves around Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but running back Isiah Pacheco plays his role well. The San Francisco offense runs through Christian McCaffrey on the ground and through the passing game.

With good running backs for both teams, let’s take a look at our favorite over/under rushing props for Super Bowl 58, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Isiah Pacheco: Over 67.5 (-120)

Pacheco played in 14 regular season games. He picked up 935 yards and seven touchdowns on 205 carries and added 244 yards and two touchdowns from 44 receptions in the passing game. Pacheco has played in three playoff games this year and has totaled 254 yards and three scores. The second-year running back finished with 89 yards against the Miami Dolphins, 97 yards against the Buffalo Bills and 68 yards against the Baltimore Ravens.

The 49ers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL. Still, Kansas City will have to establish the run, and Pacheco shouldn’t have much competition for carries. Against Baltimore, he had 24 carries while backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire had one. Pacheco should finish with at least 68 rushing yards, as he had in all three playoff games this year.

Christian McCaffrey: Under 90.5 (-110)

McCaffrey had an insane regular season for San Francisco. He had 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries and picked up 564 yards and seven touchdowns on 67 receptions. McCaffrey picked up 98 rushing yards against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional round and 90 yards against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

Kansas City’s defense allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game in the regular season, the 15th-most in the NFL. The Niners must establish the run in a similar game plan to the Chiefs. Still, even though they are favored, I don’t think that San Francisco will be able to rely on running out the clock late for extra yardage for McCaffrey. He should fall short of his rushing total, but will still see plenty of work in the passing game.

Deebo Samuel: Under 16.5 (-105)

This feels like one of those times that oddsmakers know something that we don’t. Samuel is used in a variety of ways in the San Francisco offense from lining up out wide and in the backfield. He has the talent to break off a 17-yard run at any given time, especially if the play catches the defense off guard. Samuel had more than 16 rushing yards in only five of the 17 games he played this year between the regular season and playoffs. It’s risky, but I still think Samuel finishes with fewer than 17 rushing yards.

This article can also be found in our Ultimate Guide to Super Bowl 58, presented by Frank’s Red Hot.