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Pick on the Total for Alabama State-Arkansas Pine Bluff on January 8

VSiN’s Greg Peterson goes over the best betting options for Monday’s college basketball matchup between the Alabama State Hornets and Arkansas-Pine Bluff Lions

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NCAA Basketball: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Connecticut David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The smaller conferences take center stage in college basketball on Monday as the Alabama State Hornets goes on the road to take on the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions as both look to make inroads in the SWAC.

Alabama State Hornets (-2, 151.5) vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Arkansas-Pine Bluff has played the highest percentage of games over the listed betting total of any Division I team with just one game going under the total, and that was their most recent game against Alabama A&M.

Saturday’s game against Alabama A&M was the first that Arkansas-Pine Bluff held a Division I opponent to fewer than 83 points, losing 63-62 in a game in which Alabama A&M committed 26 turnovers and Arkansas-Pine Bluff was an uncharacteristic 7-of-28 from 3-point range.

While Arkansas Pine-Bluff has failed to defend this season, ranking 361st out of 362 Division I teams in points allowed on a per possession basis, the Golden Lions are also playing at an incredibly face tempo, ranking 19th in America in total possessions per game.

Despite Saturday’s outlier, Arkansas-Pine Bluff is still shooting 36.7% from 3-point range this season, which entered the week 53rd in the country and and faces an Alabama State defense that enteredSunday 225th in 3-point shooting percentage defense and 235th in points allowed on a per possession basis.

The Hornets should get plenty of good looks of their own from 3-point range with Arkansas-Pine Bluff entering the week 359th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, though the Hornets entered the week 285th in 3-point shooting percentage.

The main form of offense for Alabama State has been second chances, ranking 99th nationally in road offensive rebound rate, getting a rebound on 29% of their missed field goals and faces an Arkansas-Pine Bluff team that is last among the 362 Division I teams in defensive rebound rate, allowing teams to rebound 39% of their missed shots.

With Arkansas-Pine Bluff playing at such a fast tempo coupled with the a combination of both their good outside shooting and bad overall defense, the trend of totals going over in Arkansas-Pine Bluff games will start again on Monday.

The Play: Alabama State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Over 151.5