clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL DFS Showdown picks, lineup strategy for Bills vs. Dolphins on Sunday Night Football in Week 18

Teddy Ricketson takes you through their picks and approach DraftKings Showdown contests for Bills vs. Dolphins on SNF in Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season.

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins throws a pass to De’Von Achane #28 of the Miami Dolphins during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

The final Sunday Night Football matchup of the 2023 regular season will take place on Sunday, January 7 as the Buffalo Bills fly south to take on the Miami Dolphins. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, and the game will air on NBC. The winner of this game will win the AFC East and clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture.

Here is our strategy for this featured DraftKings DFS matchup on Sunday night.

Injuries to look out for

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins — QUES
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins — QUES

It is important to note that as of Sunday morning, both players are expected not to play in this game.

NFL DFS Showdown strategy: Bills vs. Dolphins

Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($16,500)

Allen is the second-most expensive player in this DFS matchup. I was tempted to go with Tyreek Hill in this slot, especially if Waddle sits, but Hill is dealing with an ankle injury that has bothered him for the last few weeks. He also would be the biggest receiving threat, meaning that Buffalo’s defense would be able to key in on him and likely double-team him.

Allen’s turnover troubles are what make you question starting him as a captain. He has thrown at least one interception in all but three games this season. The deciding factor in this one is his rushing upside as well as the fact that Miami will be without some key pieces on defense, so they likely won’t uphold allowing the 12th-fewest DFS points to opposing quarterbacks as they have all season.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins ($13,500)

Mostert is expected to miss the game, which should pave the way for Achane to get a lot of work. Last week, when Mostert missed the game, Achane finished with 14 carries for 107 yards in a blowout loss and added 30 more yards and a touchdown on four receptions.

Buffalo’s defense allows middle-of-the-road numbers to opposing running backs, but Achane should see a huge workload if Mostert misses the game. Even if the starter does suit up, the rookie will still be featured in the running and passing games in the offense.

FLEX Options

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($7,000)

Behind Stefon Diggs, Davis is the next-best receiver for Buffalo. It feels like he has had a down year, but he has come down with 45 of his 79 targets for 746 yards and seven touchdowns. Miami’s defense is banged up and will have to focus on Diggs as the main receiving threat, which should open up Davis for a big game.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills ($6,200)

Someone on this Bills offense is going to have a favorable matchup with all the injuries to the Miami defense. If Diggs and Davis are somehow locked down, then Kincaid would be next in line for looks. The rookie tight end led the Bills with four receptions for 87 yards in last week’s win against the New England Patriots. He has a decent enough matchup that he is worth a start.

Value plays

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins ($3,200)

Wilson Jr.’s value would take a hit if Mostert were to start, but since he is expected to sit it would be worth starting him. Last week, he had three carries for 21 yards and three receptions for an additional 13. It may not seem like much, but Miami likes utilizing two running backs in the red zone, and Wilson is a talented pass-catcher.

Durham Smythe, TE, Miami Dolphins ($3,000)

Miami only scored 19 points last week against the Baltimore Ravens defense. Waddle and Mostert didn’t play in that game and tight end Durham Smythe finished with three receptions for 54 yards. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will have to spread the ball around against Buffalo, and Smythe is cheap enough that he would be a good addition to your lineup to save some money and bring upside.