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Should we be worried about Jared Goff’s home-road splits when betting on Lions-49ers?

Detroit’s QB historically has been worse on the road compared to at home. Will that trend continue in the NFC Championship? We give you the stats and some analysis.

Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions passes the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Detroit Lions Sunday evening for the NFC Championship game and the right to go to Super Bowl 58. Jared Goff would like to get back to the Super Bowl and this time bring along the Detroit Lions for the first time ever. But, with the game being played in San Francisco, there is some worry that Goff’s numbers on the road are going to show up this week, possibly dooming the Lions’ chances. Let’s take a look at his home/away splits from this season and in the past.

Jared Goff’s 2023 home/away splits

This season, Goff’s numbers were noticeably better at home than on the road. His QB rating fell from 107.9 to 89.4, his adjusted yards per attempt went from 8.45 to 6.99, completion percentage dropped from 70.1% to 64.8%, and his touchdowns went from 2.2 per game at home to 1.2 per game on the road.

These are fairly stark splits, but some context helps. First off, his road stats, when stacked up against other quarterbacks’ road stats, are actually pretty good in comparison. He’s top ten in yards per attempt and passing yards per game. Now, add in that the Lions played some good defenses on the road this year, like the Chiefs, Ravens, Saints, Vikings, and Cowboys, and context does help give us some perspective.

For the most part, quarterbacks usually have slightly worse numbers on the road than at home. Goff’s are starker than many, but the end result isn’t a quarterback who can’t win games on the road, as his team went 6-2 at home and 6-3 on the road this season.

Jared Goff’s home/away splits with the Lions

Goff is now in his third season with the Lions, so it’s worth taking a look at his home/away splits over that time. As the total stats accumulate, the divide between home and away can grow wider, but the efficiency stats often grow closer.

With the Lions, Goff has had 27 games at home and 23 on the road. His completion percentage at home has been 68.7% to 64.1% on the road, while his yards per attempt drops from 7.5 to 7.0. Those are both very close and very much in the realm of what you would expect for the majority of quarterbacks, good ones at least.

The biggest discrepancy, and it is big, is his touchdowns to interception ratio. In the three years with the Lions, Goff has thrown 55 TDs to 12 interceptions at home in 27 games and 23 TDs to 15 interceptions on the road in 23 games. That is a crazy difference and one that is hard to overlook completely. But, touchdowns aren’t really a predictive stat. I much rather look at yards per attempt, which Goff has kept pretty stable in his splits. I’m not saying this is a good stat, but it might not be as bad as it looks on the surface.

Jared Goff’s home/away splits with the Rams

If Goff’s awful touchdown numbers on the road is even a little predictive, I’d assume he has been bad in that department on the road when he was with the Rams, but those splits are actually fairly close. In 38 home games with the Rams, Goff threw 58 TDs to 30 interceptions, and in 36 road games, he threw 49 TDs to 25 interceptions, while his yards per attempt and completion percentage were both better on the road than at home.

Should you dock Goff for his home/away splits?

I feel like the touchdown numbers show the extreme of Goff’s home/road splits, while his more predictive stats are within the realm of most quarterback’s. The odds always give the home team a few points in the spread, which I think takes care of Goff’s poorer road stats. I’m not going to put a lot of weight into these splits when betting on this game.