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Pick on the Total for TCU-Baylor on January 27

VSiN’s Greg Peterson goes over the best betting options for Saturday’s college basketball matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears

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NCAA Basketball: Cincinnati at Baylor Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears both enter Saturday’s showdown in Waco with 14 wins each and looking for a big win with both in the middle of a stacked conference race.

TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears (-5, 155.5)

Much of this game will be decided by whether or not Baylor, who leads the country in 3-point shooting percentage against Division I teams, can heat back up as the team is making 42.1% of their 3-point shots this season, but that percentage has fallen to 30.6% in Big XII Conference games.

The Bears have been significantly better from 3-point range at home this season, shooting 45.5% from 3-point range against Division I teams in Waco, but faces a TCU defense that is 58th in the country in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 31.2%.

Overall, TCU is 20th in the country in points allowed on a per possession basis while Baylor is 89th in this category, though Baylor has some of the largest defensive home and road splits in the country.

The Bears are allowing 21.5 points per 100 possessions fewer at home than in a road or neutral court environment ranking 29th in points allowed per possession at home with their opponents 3-point shooting percentage being just 26.2% at home compared to 36.3% in a road or neutral court environment.

Along with locking down the perimeter better at home, Baylor is also preventing second chances with opponents grabbing only 21.8% of their missed shots for an offensive rebound, which is 54th in the country in home defensive rebound rate.

The second chance denial figures to effect a TCU offense that is 16th in the country in offensive rebound rate, nabbing 35.2% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound.

Since conference play has started, both teams have slowed down their tempo with Baylor’s games averaging three possessions fewer per game in conference compared to out of conference while TCU’s tempo has slowed down by nearly three and a half possessions per game since Big XII play began.

With Baylor’s defense being much more stout at home than away from home coupled with both teams slowing down their tempo, Saturday’s showdown in Texas will showcase a good defensive performance from both teams.

The Play: TCU vs. Baylor Under 155.5