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Way-too-early splits: How the public is betting Conference Championship games on Tuesday

We take a look at betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook following the Divisional Round on Tuesday.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Houston Texans during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 20, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

The 2024 NFL Playoffs are almost into Conference Championship Sunday and we have our Final Four teams left. The Baltimore Ravens were the only team to make it look easy in the Divisional Round, blowing out the fledgling Houston Texans at home 34-10. The San Francisco 49ers were able to escape the No. 7 seeded Green Bay Packers in their matchup 24-21. The Detroit Lions got past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-23 to advance to their first NFC Championship Game in over 30 years. The Kansas City Chiefs stunned the Buffalo Bills again with a 27-24 win.

Below we’ll go over the betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook early in the week for both Conference Championship games.

2024 NFL Playoff odds

Conference Championships betting splits on Jan. 23

AFC Championship

No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Ravens -3.5
Over/Under: 44.5 points
Moneyline: BAL -175, KC +145

The Ravens are favored at home in this contest against the defending champion Chiefs. We’re seeing 72% of the handle and 60% of the bets on the Ravens to cover that spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. Baltimore has only lost one game in which the team was playing starters since Week 6. The lone loss was that wild 33-31 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are 12-6 against the spread this season, the second-best team behind the Lions.

These are two good defensive units but this over/under feels a bit low. The Ravens offense shouldn’t have as much trouble moving the ball vs. the Chiefs. We also saw Kansas City’s offense look as good as it did all season in the Divisional Round vs. the Bills. This feels like two great QBs and offenses will trump the defenses and put on a show. As a result, a lot of the handle and money is on the over. We’re seeing 78% of the handle and 85% of the bets on the over to hit.

As for the moneyline, more of the bets are on Kansas City, which has made the Super Bowl in three of the past four seasons and has reached six straight AFC Championship games. Kansas City found a way to win in Buffalo and you can’t count Mahomes and Co. out despite how good the Ravens have been all season. The Chiefs have a slight edge in bets on the ML at 52% while more of the handle is on the Ravens at 68%.

NFC Championship

No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 3 Detroit Lions

Spread: 49ers -7
Over/Under: 51 points
Moneyline: SF -325, DET +260

These lines are a bit surprising and the spread has moved a half point since opening at Niners -6.5. San Fran was a heavy favorite against the Packers in the last round at home. All Green Bay did was basically win that game. You could argue had it not been for a bad 4th and 1 call and a missed FG that the Packers would have won. So to see a Lions team that is arguably much better than Green Bay as 7-point underdogs is perplexing. As a result, we’re seeing almost 60% of the bets on the Lions to cover.

The over/under is high at 51 points and we’re seeing the public unsure on which side to lean. Detroit is well equipped on defense to handle the 49ers offense, more so than the Packers were entering that game. In fact, both defenses should perform well given the Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff QB matchup. Green Bay was able to keep Purdy in check and should have had at least one turnover. Goff was good against Tampa Bay, but mostly because the defense put the offense in good field position throughout the game. I could see a push happening with this number but the under would be my lean.

This feels like a good moneyline bet on Detroit at this line. We’re seeing 68% of the handle and 66% of the bets on the Lions to win. It has less to do with the matchup straight-up and more about the odds. The odds just feel off. The Niners shouldn’t be as big a favorite in my eyes and the game should be close. I’d rather bet on the Lions ML than San Fran’s.