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How the public is betting Chiefs vs. Bills in the AFC Divisional round

We break down the betting splits for Chiefs-Bills in the AFC Divisional round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown in the second quarter against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium on November 19, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC’s Divisional round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs. The winner will take on the Baltimore Ravens next week in the AFC Championship Game. This is a rematch from Week 14 when Buffalo went into Kansas City and picked up the 20-17 victory. Let’s take a look at how the public is betting on Sunday’s game.

All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Bills -2.5 (62% handle, 63% bets)

Is the public right? Yes

On the one hand, it is hard not to back Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, but on the other, Buffalo won in Arrowhead during the regular season. This will be Mahomes’ first road playoff game, and the hometown fans are sure to play a factor in this game. Kansas City has won three games in a row, but Buffalo has won six. Quarterback Josh Allen still struggles with turnovers but is able to make it up with his rushing attack. The Bills’ defense could be the deciding factor in this game, but even if they start slow, Buffalo should cover.

Over/Under

Over 45.5 (70% handle, 67% bets)

Is the public right? Yes

Even though Kansas City had its version of a down year, the Chiefs still ranked in the top half of the league in offensive points per game. They scored 21.8 points per game, while the Bills scored 26.5. Kansas City put up 26 against Miami in absolutely frigid conditions, while Buffalo scored 31 against Pittsburgh. These teams combined for 37 in the regular season, but the public should be right, and we should see at least 46 points scored on Sunday evening.

Moneyline

Chiefs +124 (35% handle, 51% bets)

Is the public right? No

Albeit by one percent, the public is technically backing Kansas City to win this game. This goes completely against Buffalo covering by 2.5 as both outcomes cannot happen together. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kansas City winning this game, as they have played in the last five AFC Championship Games. Still, it’s hard to ignore the turnaround that the Bills made after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime of Week 12. Buffalo came out of that game 6-6 and hasn’t lost since. The momentum they’ve built, plus playing at home, should see the Bills heading back to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2020.