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Best bets for Premier League title, top 4, relegation with second half of season starting

Here’s a look at the EPL title race and top 4 race with the second half of the season starting.

Liverpool FC v Newcastle United - Premier League
Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates after scoring the fourth Liverpool goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Newcastle United at Anfield on January 01, 2024 in Liverpool, England.
Photo by John Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images

The 2023-24 English Premier League campaign heads into the second half of the season Saturday, with all teams having completed 19 matches. Here’s a look at the current table ahead of the last five matches that are being considered part of Matchday 21.

1. Liverpool, 13-6-1, 45 points, +25 GD
2. Manchester City, 13-4-3, 43 points, +25 GD
3. Aston Villa, 13-4-4, 43 points, +16 GD
4. Arsenal, 12-4-4, 40 points, +17 GD

5. Tottenham, 12-4-5, 40 points, +13 GD
6. West Ham United, 10-4-6, 34 points, +3 GD
7. Manchester United, 10-2-9, 32 points, -5 GD
8. Brighton, 8-7-5, 31 points, +5 GD
9. Chelsea, 9-4-8, 31 points, +4 GD
10. Newcastle United, 9-2-10, 29 points, +9 GD
11. Wolves, 8-4-8, 28 points, -1 GD
12. Bournemouth, 7-4-8, 25 points, -7 GD
13. Fulham, 7-3-11, 24 points, -8 GD
14. Crystal Palace, 5-6-9, 21 points, -7 GD
15. Nottingham Forest, 5-5-10, 20 points, -11 GD
16. Brentford, 5-4-10, 19 points, -5 GD
17. Everton, 8-3-10, 17 points, -4 GD

18. Luton Town, 4-4-12, 16 points, -14 GD
19. Burnley, 3-3-15, 12 points, -21 GD
20. Sheffield United, 2-3-15, 9 points, -34 GD

How to approach the title race

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Man City is still the favorite to win the league at -175. That makes Liverpool a strong bet at +300, especially since Jurgen Klopp’s side currently leads the table. Arsenal is also a solid play at +750, and the Gunners have a date with Liverpool on February 4 that will impact the standings. Liverpool also don’t have to deal with Champions League matches, which Man City and Arsenal won’t have to account for until the end of the season.

Looking at the top 4 market

Both Aston Villa and Tottenham are intriguing plays. Aston Villa is -125 to secure a top 4 spot, but Tottenham is just three points behind and has a contest against Villa in March. Spurs are +110 to finish in the top 4. There’s still plenty of time to go but it’s hard to see West Ham (+2000) or Manchester United (+1000) come into the picture to secure a Champions League spot for next season.

Which teams will get relegated?

The relegation race has plenty of intrigue. Sheffield United (-1000) and Burnley (-330) are surely going down, but Luton Town (-250) and Everton are in a bit of an interesting spot. Everton has eight wins, which means they’ve got less work to do to stave off relegation in the second half. They are +225 to be sent down and actually come in behind Nottingham Forest (+175) in this market. That’s probably due to the goal differential. Brentford (+800) offers the most upside as a side to get sent down, and the April contest between them and Luton Town could ultimately decide who gets relegated.