Update: Well, that was a quick decision on Young. The Hawks guard has been ruled out, and the Heat are now 8-point favorites with the total coming in at 224.5. Even with Young out, I like the over to hit on this number. The spread is a bit trickier, since we’re approaching an area where one or two late garbage-time baskets can change things. I’ll take the Heat to cover at the new number.
Southeast division rivals face off when the Atlanta Hawks (17-23) meet the Miami Heat (24-17) Friday evening. The Hawks have won their last two and are hoping to climb into the playoff conversation, while the Heat look to shake off an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Raptors. This is the third meeting between these teams this season, with Miami winning both previous encounters.
Hawks point guard Trae Young is listed as questionable with an illness, so that could go either way. De’Andre Hunter remains out for Atlanta. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is doubtful for the Heat, while Kevin Love is questionable.
The Heat are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 227. Miami is -245 on the moneyline while Atlanta is +200.
Hawks vs. Heat, 8 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat -6.5
The Heat won both contests against the Hawks and covered the spread in both instances, once as the underdog and once as the favorite. Young’s status will impact this line a bit and Atlanta is coming into this contest on a winning run, but Miami will want to respond after getting lit up by the Raptors despite Pascal Siakam being gone.
Although Miami is 8-11 ATS as the home team, the Heat have covered the spread in three of four games during their most recent home stand. The Hawks have been the worst team against the spread this season, and sport a 6-14 ATS mark as the road side. Take the Heat to win and cover tonight.
Over/Under: Over 227
The Heat are 18-23 to the over this season, while the Hawks are 23-17. Miami is actually 11-8 to the over as the home side this year, which is not usually the case. The Heat have gone under their totals in the last four games and nine of the last 11. The Hawks have gone under their totals in the last four games, although only one of those totals was set under 245.
These teams were 1-1 in the previous head-to-head matchups on this particular line. The game in Atlanta went under this mark and the game in Miami went over. Friday’s matchup is in South Beach so I’ll take the over.