clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Pick on the Total for Oregon State-Utah on January 18

VSiN’s Greg Peterson goes over the best betting options for Thursday’s college basketball matchup between the Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

NCAA Basketball: NIT Season Tip-Off Third Place Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Oregon State Beavers enter Thursday ranked last in the Pac-12 Standings with a 1-4 record and are in dire need a win on the road against the Utah Utes to climb out of the conference cellar.

Oregon State Beavers vs. Utah Utes (-15, 144)

The per-game metrics of Oregon State have been as warped, coming into this game as the only team to have four different games go to overtime — with two of those being forced to double overtime.

While Oregon State is averaging 71.7 points per game against Division I opponents this season when overtime is factored in, that number drops to just 67 points per game in regulation (for an offense that is not very efficient to start with).

The Beavers are 230th in the nation in points per possession and have seen their 3-point shooting numbers decline when playing on the road, shooting 37.2% from 3-point range at home opposed to 26.6% on the road. Overall, they rank 336th nationally in road 3-point shooting percentage.

While the Beavers have had some large home and road shooting splits, Utah has been a different team defensively when playing at home, allowing 30.8 points per 100 possessions fewer than road games. Utah also allows opponents to shoot 29% from 3-point range at home compared to 39.5% from 3-point range on the road.

Second chances also won’t be there for Oregon State, with the team grabbing rebounds just 20.1% of the time on the road, which ranks 328th in the nation. Meanwhile, Utah has also struggled to get second chances, ranking 203rd in offensive rebound rate.

While Oregon State entered Wednesday ranked 167th in total possessions per game, when overtime possessions were subtracted, the team ranked outside of the nation’s top 250 in total possessions per game. Utah ranked 190th in possessions per game but has seen a dramatic decline in tempo — playing a rate of 12 possessions per game slower across the past three games than in its first 14 games of the season.

With Oregon State ranking 303rd in the nation’s top in turnovers committed per possession on offense and Utah point guard Rollie Worster questionable for this game due to injury, the number of dead possessions in a game that already figures to have a slower tempo to start with will lead to a Thursday slog.

The Play: Oregon State vs. Utah Under 144