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Betting markets on day of 2024 Iowa Caucus, after Des Moines Register poll

The poll that has achieved almost mythical status for its decades of accuracy has moved the betting markets in favor of Nikki Haley and away from Ron DeSantis

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at Simpson College on January 14, 2024 in Indianola, Iowa. Tomorrow Iowa Republicans will be the first to select their party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential race when they go to caucus. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

The 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus is here, with voters heading to over 1400 locations such as church basements and school gymnasiums on January 15 at 8 p.m. ET to determine who receives the first delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention.

The Des Moines Register has released their final Iowa poll of 2024, and it’s certainly a mixed bag for the candidates. While Donald Trump will win on Monday comfortably, he might not get the majority of all caucus-goers he was hoping for as his final poll results have him under the 50% threshold. And if the newspaper of record for the state is correct, it will likely spell the end of the Ron DeSantis campaign as well.

Here are the results of the final Des Moines Register poll (paywall), historically one of the top-rated polling outfits in American history.

Donald Trump 48%
Nikki Haley 20%
Ron DeSantis 16%
Vivek Ramaswamy 8%

But under those figures is that support for Haley might be softer than that of the other candidates. “The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,” said pollster Ann Selzer to the Register.

With the weather in Iowa expected to be brutal, and an NFL Playoff game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on ABC and ESPN, enthusiasm for candidates might be a major factor in who wins. Of the leading candidates, Haley’s support does seem the softest; when those polled were asked if they were “extremely enthusiastic” about their candidate, 49% of Trump’s voters said yes, while 23% of DeSantis’s said the same, but just 9% of Haley’s.

With the polling data now public, the betting markets have moved as well. All markets have been converted to American Odds, but may appear in a different format on each website.

Betfair: Iowa Caucus popular vote winner without Trump

Haley -163
DeSantis +110
Ramaswamy +2500

Polymarket: Iowa Caucus 2nd place

Haley -144
DeSantis +170
Ramaswamy +1900

If Haley does finish second as is now projected, that would likely spell the end of the Ron DeSantis campaign. The Governor of Florida has spent over $150 million in the Hawkeye State, and finishing behind Haley would likely be the death knell. Especially with Haley well ahead in the next election set for New Hampshire on January 23.

The suspension of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s campaign should only help Haley’s effort, as they both have taken a more strident stance against former President Trump and his policies in terms of rhetoric.