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Pick against the spread, over/under for USA vs. Italy in FIBA World Cup quarterfinal on Tuesday

We go over some of the best betting options for Tuesday’s FIBA World Cup quarterfinal between the United States and Italy.

USA v Lithuania: Group J - FIBA Basketball World Cup
Anthony Edwards of USA during the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2nd Round Group J game between USA and Lithuania at Mall of Asia Arena on September 3, 2023 in Manila, Philippines.
Photo by Ariana Saigh/Getty Images

The 2023 FIBA World Cup enters the knockout stage as the United States faces Italy on Tuesday, September 5. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:40 a.m. ET from the Mall of Asia Arena in Manila, Philippines.

Team USA will need to rid the memory of a surprising loss to Lithuania as it enters the win-or-go-home stage of the World Cup. Despite getting 35 points from Anthony Edwards on Sunday, only three other players finished in double digits scoring while Lithuania won the battle on the glass 43-27. Steve Kerr’s squad will need to clean up its performance on the boards as its last two opponents, Montenegro and Lithuania, have benefited from second-chance opportunities.

Italy went 4-1 through the first two rounds of the tournament, including a vital 78-76 upset win over Serbia, who have been the most efficient team through the World Cup. Simone Fontecchio will be a name to watch as he leads Italy in scoring at 18.4 points per game. Italy come in as the second-best rebounding team, so they should look to take advantage of the glass in Tuesday’s matchup.

The United States is a 16.5-point favorite and priced at -1350 on the moneyline, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Italy enter as +800 moneyline underdogs, with the point total set at 178.

USA vs. Italy, 8:40 a.m. ET

Pick ATS: Italy +16.5

Team USA’s narrow victory over Montenegro and loss to Lithuania should serve as a wake-up call for this roster. It’s clear that outside of Edwards, the Americans don’t have enough offensive firepower to overwhelm their opponents and cruise to a gold medal. Still, this roster is more talented than Italy and should have plenty to prove following Sunday’s loss, though Italy will make them work for every bucket. Take the Italians to cover a large spread.

Over/Under: Under 178

Team USA has averaged 101.4 points per game over their last five contests, while Italy has scored at a clip of just 80.8 points per game in the same span. Lithuania may have given the field the blueprint to play physical with Kerr’s squad, and Italy would be wise to be aggressive on the boards for second-chance opportunities. Another hard-fought, physical matchup should result in the point total finishing under 178.