The Detroit Lions head to Lambeau Field to take on the rival Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. This is arguably the biggest regular-season game between the two franchises this early in the season. Both teams are tied 2-1 and the winner gets to sit atop the NFC North division for at least one week. We go over the betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook with some analysis.
Thursday Night Football betting splits
Lions vs. Packers
Detroit is a road favorite in this matchup. The Packers are dealing with a handful of injuries, most notably to starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. CB Jaire Alexander was inactive last week and WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones are banged up. Jones and Watson could be back for TNF. Alexander is also questionable to play.
So the Lions should have the edge depending on where the injury dominos fall. Detroit has a stout defensive line than held Bijan Robinson in check, something the Packers couldn’t muster in Week 2. The Packers have adopted a “bend-not-break” mentality on defense that has worked out through three games. It’ll be up to Jordan Love to step up and lead the offense again.
We’re seeing 78% of the handle and 77% of the bets on the Lions to cover that spread. It’s not all that surprising. Detroit is the better team in the end. This game should be close and could be decided by a few points or one score. If that’s the case, I see the Lions coming out on top more often than not.
We’ve seen this number drop throughout the week. It was at 46 a few days ago. So the money is coming in on the under. We’re seeing 63% of the handle and 52% of the bets on the under. So far this season, primetime games are seeing the under hit more often. It’s a short week. The Packers are still dealing with injuries all around. The Lions have also had their struggles on offense and should lean on the run game with RB David Montgomery healthy. That could result in fewer scoring opportunities for both teams. I’d lead under.
Lions -125, Packers +105
This is a tricky number. Detroit feels like a great value at that line but you also have the Packers at home as underdogs, which is almost never the case. Green Bay historically is very tough at Lambeau, regardless of who is on the field.
We’re seeing the public backing the Lions at 72% of the handle and 64% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. There has been some money coming in on Green Bay on the ML, however. It could be because Watson and/or Jones could be back. Jones would make a greater impact. The run game without Jones hasn’t been dynamic enough and the Lions have a tough defensive front. If Watson, Jones and Alexander all play, we could see some spread movement before kickoff. I’d still lean on Detroit in this spot despite being the road team.