Ole Miss vs. Alabama picks, best bets for Week 4 matchup

Saturday’s SEC slate will feature the No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels heading into Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide. Kickoff for this SEC West showdown is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on CBS.

Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC) has handled its business through the first three weeks of the regular season, last dominating Georgia Tech 48-23 last Saturday. Quarterback Jaxson Dart was lethal with both his arms and his legs in this one as he threw for 251 passing yards, ran for 136 rushing yards, and compiled three touchdowns. Head coach Lane Kiffin is trying to became just the fourth former assistant of Nick Saban’s to defeat their former boss.

Alabama (2-1, 0-0 SEC) is coming off an uninspiring 17-3 road victory at USF that has since raised even more questions about this year’s team. The game was defined by a disastrous situation at quarterback as both Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson proved ineffective in place of Jalen Milroe, who was benched for the entire contest. Equally concerning was the offensive line, who struggled to protect against a Bulls defense that was the worst unit in FBS a season ago. As for QB, Nick Saban confirmed that Milroe will start for the Crimson Tide against the Rebels this week

SP+ Rankings

Ole Miss: 14 overall, 7 offense, 25 defense
Alabama: 6 overall, 9 offense, 12 defense

Injury update

Ole Miss

TE Caden Prieskorn - Out (Toe)
WR Jalen Knox - Questionable (Undisclosed)
WR Zakhari Franklin - Questionable (Knee)
QR Qua Davis - Questionable (Undisclosed)
TE Hudson Wolfe - Questionable (Shoulder)
LB Tres Harris III - Questionable (Knee)

Alabama

WR Kendrick Law - Questionable (illness)
DL Jaheim Oatis - Out (Ankle)
OL Tyler Booker - Out (Back)
WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. - Out (Hip)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Ole Miss: 3-0 ATS
Alabama: 1-2 ATS

Total in 2023

Ole Miss: Over 2-1
Alabama: Over 2-1

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama -7
Total: 56
Moneyline: Alabama -270, Ole Miss +220

Opening line: Alabama -6.5
Opening total: 53.5

Weather

87 degrees, sunny, 7 MPH winds NNW

The Pick

Under 56

Even with the quarterback situation at Alabama being a mess, I am staying the hell away from the spread and sticking with the under. Ole Miss’ defense has improved this year and they’re probably licking their chops after seeing what USF did to Bama’s offensive line. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide defense is still excellent and that unit may have to carry this team for the rest of the year. They should have Rebel QB Jaxson Dart under duress for the entire afternoon. Give me the under in Tuscaloosa.