The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. The Giants mounted a massive comeback in a 31-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. Unfortunately, they have a quick turnaround on the West Coast in a tough matchup against San Fran. The Niners are 2-0 after defeating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2. We take a look at how the public is betting the game and how to interpret it.
Thursday Night Football betting splits
Giants vs. 49ers
This line has moved because of the injury to Giants RB Saquon Barkley. It’s also based on how both teams have performed to this point. Despite the comeback win, the Giants were on pace to get blown out by the Cardinals and Joshua Dobbs. Now, you’re going on the road vs. arguably the best team in the NFL right now.
Usually, the home team and the under are the plays. We’re seeing 62% of the handle and 73% of the bets coming in on San Fran at -10.5 on the spread. A lot of that action may have been at -10 rather than the half point. The previous number is way more appealing. Still, this feels like a spot the 49ers will smash. The Giants O-Line is in shambles and the team is missing its best player.
As we can see, the home team is getting all the love and 67% of the handle is on the under. Most of the best are on the over at 60%. That’s likely because people think the 49ers will just blow the doors off New York. The Giants should be throwing the ball a lot in this matchup with Barkley out. That could lead to more turnovers, more possessions for each team, or more points for the Giants. The Niners could also be without Brandon Aiyuk. The way they distribute the ball on offense would leave them thin if Aiyuk can’t play.
Because of the injuries, short week and Giants O-Line, we’ll lean on the under. I wrote last week but always follow the money when it comes to NFL and Vegas. That was half right since the Vikings covered if you got +6.5 but the over hit. This feels much more straightforward from a betting perspective. There’s a scenario where the Niners defense looks like Dallas did in the opener and holds the Giants to very few points. I don’t think San Fran can score around 35-38 in this game (thought it wouldn’t be crazy). So the lean is the under.
49ers -500, Giants +380
Nobody should be rushing to go bet on the moneyline. Because it’s the NFL and the Giants probably aren’t THIS bad, New York ML is maybe worth a sprinkle. Most of the money and bets are on the Niners ML, hovering around 70% for each category. The 49ers should win. Moneyline isn’t anything intriguing to bet unless you want to throw San Fran into a parlay around Week 3 games this weekend.