Picks, predictions for Reds vs. Mets on Saturday, September 16

The Cincinnati Reds (77-72) kept pace in the NL Wild Card race with a win over the New York Mets (68-79) on Friday, but every game is critical with just two weeks remaining in the 2023 season. Cincy will look to gain some separation on the Diamondbacks, Marlins and Giants on Saturday, as they take on New York again with first pitch from Citi Field set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Rookie Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.64 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while the Mets counter with righty Tylor Megill (8-7, 5.03).

It’s tough to get much tighter than the NL Wild Card picture right now. Cincinnati and Arizona both won last night, remaining tied for the third and final spot at 77-72 — with the D-backs holding the tiebreaker after winning the season series. Miami (half-game back) and San Francisco (one game back) are sitting on 72 losses as well, and the standings figure to change a dozen times from now until the end of September.

The Reds enter as -118 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at -102. The run total is set at 8.

Reds-Mets picks: Saturday, September 16

Injury report

Reds

Out: SP Graham Ashcraft (toe), RP Tejay Antone (elbow), C Curt Casali (foot), SS Matt McLain (oblique), 2B Kevin Newman (oblique), OF Stuart Fairchild (Covid)

Mets

Day-to-day: 2B Ronny Mauricio (illness), 3B Brett Baty (groin)
Out: RP Sean Reid-Foley (lat), OF Starling Marte (groin), SS Luis Guillorme (calf)

Starting pitchers

Andrew Abbott vs. Tylor Megill

Abbott got off to a sensational start to his rookie season, but he’s hit a bit of a wall of late, with a 6.09 ERA since August 1. He’s coming off arguably his worst start of the year, too, giving up six runs on four hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Cardinals last weekend. His stuff remains very good, but it’s been hard to know which of his pitches — fastball, curveball, slider — will show up on any given day, and his command remains a question mark (12 walks over his last four starts).

Megill, conversely, is coming off one of his best starts of the year, firing five shutout innings while allowing just two hits in a no-decision against the Twins last weekend. He’s been better since being thrust back into the rotation post-deadline firesale, with a 3.12 ERA over his last five starts, although he doesn’t have the deepest arsenal behind his fastball (which he throws over 50 percent of the time).

Over/Under pick

Given the recent trends of each of these starters, this number feels a bit low to me — especially with Abbott facing a Mets lineup that’s hitting .292/.350/.556 as a team against lefty pitching since the start of September. Megill isn’t particularly reliable either — even if he pitches well, he’s unlikely to go more than five innings or so and expose New York’s bullpen — and these teams reached eight runs last night despite Hunter Greene dominating on the mound.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

I think the Mets match up particularly well against Abbott, who simply doesn’t have the form to navigate Pete Alonso and Co. multiple times unscathed. Weirdly, I trust Megill more here, and at nearly even money I’ll take the team with the more consistent heart of the order.

Pick: Mets -102