LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, best bets for Week 3 matchup

The No. 14 LSU Tigers will open SEC play when visiting the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Kickoff for this SEC West showdown is set for noon ET and the game will air on ESPN. This will be the 117th all-time meeting between these two rivals with LSU owning a 77-36-3 record in the series.

LSU (1-1, 0-0 SEC) was able to handle its business against an FCS opponent last Saturday, dominating Grambling State 72-10 in the first ever meeting between the two in-state programs. The Tigers scored a touchdown on 10 out of 11 drives in this contest as they were able to get numerous players reps ahead of their SEC opener. Quarterback Jayden Daniels was excellent in just one half of action, going 18-24 for 269 yards and five touchdowns in the win.

Mississippi State (2-0, 0-0 SEC) went to the desert last Saturday and escaped with a 31-24 overtime victory over Arizona. This was a a tight contest late in the second half and Wildcats kicker Tyler Loop sent the game into OT with a 36-yard field goal right before the end of regulation. MSU QB Will Rogers hit Jeffery Pittman for a 24-yard touchdown in OT to put them on top and the defense came up with a stop to seal the win.

SP+ Rankings

LSU: 16 overall, 11 offense, 35 defense
Mississippi State: 23 overall, 25 offense, 32 defense

Injury update

LSU

CB JK Johnson - Out (Leg)
RB John Emery Jr. - Probable (Undisclosed)
TE Mason Taylor - Probable (Ankle)
RN Armoni Goodwin - Questionable (Undisclosed)

Mississippi State

S Ja’Kobi Albert - Out for season (Knee)
TE Geor’quarius Spivey - Out for season (Eligibility)
TE Seydou Traore - Out indefinitely (Eligibility)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

LSU: 1-1 ATS
Mississippi State: 1-1 ATS

Total in 2023

LSU: Over 2-0
Mississippi State: Over 0-2

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: LSU -9.5
Total: 54.5
Moneyline: LSU -375, Mississippi State +295

Opening line: LSU -7
Opening total: 49.5

Weather

89 degrees, partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the area, 6 MPH winds WSW with 8 MPH wind gusts

The Pick

Mississippi State +9.5

Even as a two-score favorite, this SEC opener most likely won’t be a walk in the park for LSU. Mississippi State matches well with the Tigers in SP+ and as the home team, it should be game for this high noon showdown. While I don’t anticipate an upset, I do think the Will Rogers, Jo’Quavious Marks, and the Bulldogs will keep it close and cover as a home underdog.