Picks, predictions for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks on Friday, September 15

The Chicago Cubs (78-69) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-72) will begin a three-game weekend series tonight that has huge NL Wild Card implications. These two teams just met in Chicago one week ago, where Arizona took three out of four games in that series. First pitch for tonight’s matchup is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix. Lefty Justin Steele (16-3, 2.49 ERA) will start for the Cubbies and go up against D-Backs righty Brandon Pfaadt (1-8, 6.25).

Chicago just dropped two of three to Colorado earlier in the week, not helping its playoff push in the slightest. After taking the opener, the favored Cubs dropped Tuesday’s matchup 6-4 before losing Wednesday’s series finale 7-3. As of now, the Cubs still own the second NL Wild Card spot and are currently 4.5 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central standings.

Arizona also didn’t help its postseason push this week, dropping three of four games at the Mets. Things progressively got worse for the Diamondbacks after taking the opener, losing 7-4, 7-1, and 11-1 all in successive games. The team is now in a three-way tie with San Francisco and Cincinnati for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Chicago enters this one as a -142 favorite on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, making Arizona the +120 underdog. The run total is set at 8.5.

Cubs-Diamondbacks picks: Friday, September 15

Injury report

Cubs

Out: SP Marcus Stroman (hip), 3B Jeimer Candelario (back), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm), RP Nick Burdi (abdomen), RP Ethan Roberts (elbow), RP Brandon Hughes (knee)

Diamondbacks

Out: SP Tommy Henry (elbow), OF Dominic Fletcher (finger), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), RP Austin Adams (ankle), RP Drey Jameson (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Justin Steele vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Steele continued to bolster his NL Cy Young campaign in last Saturday’s start against this same Diamondbacks squad, recording a quality start in an eventual 3-2 extra-innings loss for the team. He went seven full innings, striking out six while yielding just one earned run in the process. He has dominated right-handed batters this season as they’re averaging just .240 against him with a .613 OPS.

Pfaadt’s start against the Cubs last Sunday didn’t go so well as the team eventually took a 5-2 loss. He was able to go six full innings, but was hit for four earned runs off seven hits and a walk. His home splits have been dreadful this season as he’s 1-5 with a 7.30 ERA and a .325 opponent batting average at Chase Field this year.

Over/Under pick

Considering the pitching matchup, this could be a one-sided affair as one of the teams could possibly tip the over by themselves. That’s where I’ll lean for this one as we can expect several runs to be scored at Chase Field this evening.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

That team on the winning end should be the Cubs, as they have the chance to take advantage of Pfaadt’s pitching woes at home. Chicago has been on fire at the plate in the last week, recording a team batting average of .292 and an OPS of .803 in their last five games. I expect that to carry over into tonight’s series opener.

Pick: Cubs -142