Utah State vs. Air Force picks, best bets for Week 3 matchup

The Utah State Aggies (1-1, 0-0 MWC) take on the Air Force Falcons (2-0, 0-0 MWC) in Week 3 of the college football season. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, September 15. Air Force enters as a home favorite in this conference matchup.

Utah State fell to Iowa, 24-14, in their season opener. Quarterback Cooper Legas passed for 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Aggies then piled 78 points on Idaho State in Week 2 with a dominant rushing game. Three different running backs had 80 or more yards in the win.

Air Force’s defense is their claim to fame this year, ranking in the top 10 in SP+ standings. The Falcons have faced Robert Morris and Sam Houston so far this season, and have allowed just one touchdown and one field goal. Robert Morris ended the game with 156 total yards of offense, while Sam Houston managed just 80. Air Force QB Zachary Larrier has been a dual threat this season.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

Utah State: 94 overall, 98 offense, 91 defense
Air Force: 62 overall, 119 offense, 8 defense

Injury update

Utah State

TE Josh Sterzer - Out (undisclosed)

Air Force

N/A

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Utah State: 2-0 ATS
Air Force: 0-2 ATS

Total in 2023 (check here)

Utah State: Over 1-1
Air Force: Over 0-2

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Air Force -9.5
Total: 47
Moneyline: Air Force -340, Utah State +270

Weather

73°F, Cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation, 10 MPH winds

The Pick

Utah State +9.5

Air Force has an excellent defense this year, but Utah State has already faced a top Iowa defense (ranked No. 1 in SP+) and scored 14 points while keeping it a 10-point game. Air Force is not playing at the same level as Iowa, and I like the Aggies to keep this one close. They have a deep running back room as their advantage, and have already played a Top 25 opponent this season, while Air Force has limped past a pair of unimpressive sides.