Picks, predictions for Marlins vs. Brewers on Tuesday, September 12

The Milwaukee Brewers doused some very cold water on the Marlins’ playoff push with a 12-0 drubbing on Monday. Now Miami will look to bounce back in game two of this three-game set, with first pitch from American Family Field set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Reliever JT Chargois (1-0, 3.63 ERA) will serve as the opener for the Fish, while Milwaukee counters with ace Freddy Peralta (11-8, 3.89).

Miami had won eight of 10 prior to last night’s blowout, including two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend. The most recent loss, however, dropped the Marlins back out of a playoff spot in the wild NL Wild Card race, now 1.5 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Milwaukee, meanwhile, keeps on chugging, with a 4.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central.

The Brewers enter as -166 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Miami at +140. The run total is set at 7.5.

Marlins-Brewers picks: Tuesday, September 12

Injury report

Marlins

Day-To-Day: SP Sixto Sanchez (shoulder), RP Andrew Nardi (hand)
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (forearm), RP Matt Barnes (hip), RP Anthony Bender (elbow), DH Jorge Soler (oblique)

Brewers

Day-To-Day: SP Corbin Burnes (ankle), OF Christian Yelich (back)
Out: SP Julio Teheran (hip), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), DH Jesse Winker (back), RP JC Mejia (shoulder), OF Blake Perkins (oblique), SP Adrian Houser (elbow)

Starting pitchers

JT Chargois vs. Freddy Peralta

For the second time this month, Chargois will serve as Miami’s nominal starter — with electric but extremely wild righty Edward Cabrera likely following in a bulk capacity, given that Chargois has never gone more than two innings in any outing this season. Cabrera is as boom or bust as it comes: He has among the very worst walk rates in baseball, and his command is liable to disappear for whole starts at a time; but he also has among the most explosive arsenals of any starter out there, as he demonstrated while fanning eight in just four innings of work while picking up a win over the Dodgers in his last appearance. His fastball/changeup combo is darn near unhittable when he’s anywhere near the strike zone.

Speaking of darn near unhittable, here are Peralta’s numbers over his last eight starts: 2.09 ERA, five quality starts and a whopping 73 Ks in just 47.1 innings. The righty has been on a heater for over a month now, with four games of double-digit strikeouts and never allowing more than three runs. His slider is one of the nastiest in baseball, with a 46.4% whiff rate and a .197 batting average against.

Over/Under pick

This is among the lowest numbers on the slate tonight, but with two pitchers cooking like this, you can understand why. Cabrera’s floor is pretty low, but he’s seemingly in command of the strike zone right now, and at his peak he’s capable of dominating. With two middling offenses — Milwaukee’s 12-run outburst last night notwithstanding — I’m backing the under here.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

Cabrera as an underdog is awfully tempting, but Peralta is too good right now and still represents the far trustworthier option on the mound. He’s as close to a sure thing as it gets, and I’ll back him as a home favorite with an offense that’s started to swing the bat a bit better of late.

Pick: Brewers -166