Picks, predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros on Tuesday, August 22

After breaking out the bats in a big way in the series opener on Monday night, the Houston Astros (71-55) look to make it two in a row while the Boston Red Sox (66-59) look to strengthen their position in the AL Wild Card race on Tuesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park in Houston is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA) will make his return from the IL for Boston, while the Astros counter with Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.15).

Houston enters as -148 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox at +124. The run total is set at 9.

Red Sox-Astros picks: Tuesday, August 22nd

Injury report

Red Sox

N/A

Astros

Out: RP Phil Maton (elbow), 1B Jose Abreu (spine), OF/DH Michael Brantley (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck vs. Justin Verlander

Houck will be toeing the rubber for the first time since taking a scary line drive off of his face against the Yankees back in June. The righty was playing his best ball of the year when he went down, with just three runs allowed over 10 innings across his two most recent starts, but he’d struggled for consistency prior to that point. Houck’s slider is a legit weapon, with a 38.1% whiff rate and .202 BA against, but he’s yet to find an effective weapon for dealing with lefties and could have trouble with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker tonight.

Verlander got touched up in his last outing, giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits while striking out just two against the Miami Marlins. He’s been relatively pedestrian overall since coming back to Houston at the trade deadline, with just 13 Ks across 18 innings of work. Still, this is grading on a curve, and while Verlander doesn’t have his usual strikeout stuff at age 41, his last start was just the third time he’s allowed more than two runs in 10 starts dating back to June 20.

Over/Under pick

Alvarez and Tucker aside, this is a very righty-heavy Astros lineup, one that’s just 19th in the Majors in team OPS against right-handed pitching since the start of August — not the worst matchup for Houck who has pretty extreme platoon splits. Combine that with Verlander’s usual steadiness on the other side, and I think we’re headed for the under tonight despite Houston’s nine-run outburst on Monday.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

Verlander is just a much, much more known quantity in this spot than Houck, who’ll surely have some rust to knock off after missing so much time. Boston may hang around in this one, but in the end I expect Houston’s offense to be the one who delivers the late blow.

Pick: Astros