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Jalen Hurts vs. Josh Allen: Who should you draft in fantasy football?

We go over the fantasy football outlooks of Hurts and Allen and pick who we’d draft first.

Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles looks to pass the ball during Training Camp at Lincoln Financial Field on August 9, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

It feels like a Golden Age of quarterbacks in the NFL heading into 2023. When it comes to drafting in fantasy football, despite all the talent at QB, you’re still going to wait a bit before drafting a signal-caller. If you’re looking to snag a QB somewhere in the second or third round and Patrick Mahomes isn’t available, chances are its between Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.

Here we’re going to debate which QB you should draft and why.

Fantasy football showdown: Jalen Hurts vs. Josh Allen

Case for Jalen Hurts

Last season, Hurts finished as the QB3 (just behind Allen) after having a breakout season. He threw for 3,701 yards with 22 TDs and just six INTs, adding another 760 yards rushing with 13 TDs. Hurts was essentially a fringe starting QB rolled into an RB2, forming one of the best players in fantasy football.

There’s really no reason to believe Hurts will regress much. The one thing the Eagles might explore is fewer rushes for Hurts. He’s signed to a massive contract and needs to be protected a bit more. Plus, from what we saw last season, we know Hurts is much more than just a rushing QB. Hurts finished fourth among qualified QBs last season in passer rating (101.6) and QBR (66.4). Philly is running it back with the same receiving core led by AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

It’s fair to say we could see Hurts throwing the ball more in 2023. That could boost his passing numbers where we see him go over 4,000 yards with around 25-28 TDs. Maintaining that TD pace on the ground will be difficult, though not impossible. The Eagles do have more depth at RB having traded for D’Andre Swift and signing Rashaad Penny. Rushing regression with improvements in passing stats still could result in similar numbers. It also could mean a slight regression overall. That isn’t to say Hurts isn’t worth his draft slot.

Case for Josh Allen

Since being drafted in 2018, Allen has been the model of consistency for a QB rushing the ball. He’s also become an elite passer. In 2022, Allen completed his third straight season with at least 4,000 passing yards and 35 TDs. In 2020, he had his worst season rushing the ball, which still resulted in 421 yards and eight TDs. Last season, he came a yard short of matching his rushing total from the previous year (763). Allen has had at least six rushing TDs in each of his NFL seasons.

Allen finished 2022 slightly ahead of Hurts as the QB2 behind Mahomes. What Allen accomplished last season was pretty impressive given the personnel on the Bills. That offense is mostly back with WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Buffalo drafted TE Dalton Kinkaid to add another element to the passing game. James Cook should take over at RB with Damien Harris in the mix, replacing Devin Singletary to lead the backfield.

It’s hard to argue with consistency. As was mentioned previously, Allen hasn’t regressed at all the past three seasons and is still just 27 years old. What could help maintain his rushing upside is the backfield is still middling and the offensive line is as well. With Allen, you know what you’re getting. He’ll likely go for over 4,000 passing yards with 30+ TDs and another 500-600 yards on the ground with 6-8 rushing TDs.

Verdict

It’s hard to find a path to drafting Hurts over Allen. The floor and ceiling are both higher for Allen. Even if both QBs regress on the ground and are protected a bit more, Allen gets the edge because of the Bills’ passing offense. Philly has more talent at receiver but it’s hard to see Hurts jumping from sub-4K passing yards and 22 TDs to somewhere close to Allen’s numbers. It’s a close call but we’ll stick with Allen in pretty much all formats over Hurts.