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Nico Collins: Fantasy football draft profile for 2023 NFL season

We break down the outlook for Nico Collins heading into the 2023 NFL season.

Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) runs with the football during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.  Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is one of the names many fantasy football analysts are projecting to have a breakout season in 2023. He’s been relatively quiet through his first few seasons, but things in Houston are moving upwards and they want Collins to be a part of that.

2023 Fantasy Football: Nico Collins Profile

Recap of 2022 season

Collins' numbers improved in 2022 compared to 2021 a bit, but nothing spectacular. He finished the season with 37 receptions for 481 yards and two touchdowns. He finished as WR76 by standard fantasy rankings which isn’t even worth a fantasy roster spot in many leagues. He dealt with some injuries, however, as he only played in 10 games.

Updated Houston Texans outlook

The Texans have a brand new look this season. After firing Love Smith, they hired Demeco Ryans who was the best head coaching candidate out there in my opinion. They drafted C.J. Stroud who is their franchise quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft. They also went out and added Robert Woods in free agency. The wide receiver room is strong and the battle to earn one of the top three spots will be tight. They have Woods, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, Noah Brown, Tank Dell, along with Collins.

Best-case scenario

Collins rises up to WR35-WR40. Stroud is the best quarterback that he has played with in his career and the accuracy stands out. Collins has shown some ability to make big plays down the field and Stroud can use a receiver like that. I think the offense will be extremely balanced however and Stroud has better targets, so the highest I see Collins rising is there.

Worst-case scenario

Collins finishes around WR55-WR60. As long as Collins is healthy, I don't see him having the worst season than this. However, Collins has some serious competition that people are overlooking. Woods has been good throughout his NFL career and will see a healthy amount of targets. Metchie was stellar at Alabama and is expected to turn some heads in his first year playing as he has been recovering from Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia. Dell is close with Stroud and will shock some people with his first-year production. The WR1 job will be a battle and Collins will have to earn it.

Prediction

I’m not as high on Collins as most people. I think he finishes this season somewhere around WR38-WR40. I really like what the Texans are building and Stroud will be a star in the NFL. But Collins has yet to show me that he is a true WR1. I think it has helped that he’s played on a struggling team, but I don't think that will be the case in 2023.