Following a 9-8 campaign in 2022 in which the Miami Dolphins reach the AFC Wild Card round, head coach Mike McDaniel will look to build upon the success he had in his first season in South Beach. With a bevy of talent on the offensive side of the ball, running back Jeff Wilson Jr. could play a prominent role in what has become a tightly contested running back room in Miami.
2023 Fantasy Football: Jeff Wilson Jr. Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Wilson appeared in 16 games for both the San Francisco 49ers and Dolphins last season, rushing for 860 yards and five touchdowns with an average of 4.9 yards per carry. After being traded to Miami, he finished second in rushing with an average of 4.7 yards per attempt behind only Raheem Mostert. In PPR formats, Wilson averaged 9.9 points per game, and finished as RB30 with a total of 158.5 fantasy points.
Updated Dolphins outlook
Not much has changed offensively in Miami. The biggest additions come on the defensive side of the ball with the trade for All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey and the hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. So long as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, it’s safe to say that there are serious expectations for the Dolphins to contend for an AFC East title. One addition that will likely impact Wilson’s workload is the drafting of former Texas A&M running back De’Von Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Achane will surely get carries as he’s the youngest tailback in the backfield, but Wilson at 27 years old should have an advantage over the 31-year-old Mostert. In reality, expect McDaniel to leverage a running back-by-committee approach, which will create inconsistency when assessing fantasy production on a weekly basis. But, if Wilson remains involved ahead of Mostert, then it presents the best-case scenario.
If Achane ascends atop the depth chart and Mostert is the beneficiary of goal-line scoring opportunities, then that may leave Wilson as the odd man out when it comes to his fantasy ceiling. At best in this scenario, he would be a mere handcuff to fantasy managers that have Achane or Mostert on their roster. There’s also the chance the Dolphins bring in free agent RB Dalvin Cook, which could make most of the other backs obsolete in terms of fantasy.
Achane’s arrival in Miami leaves a big question mark when it comes to Wilson’s fantasy upside, and in reality, the former Texas A&M tailback should get plenty of opportunities given his youth and his elite speed. I think Wilson will remain involved, but will be at best a FLEX consideration week-to-week depending on the health of Achane and Mostert. Between 7.0 and 10.0 PPR fantasy points per game seem like an accurate benchmark.