The 2023 fantasy football season is upon us. Training camps are starting around the league, and we are nearing important training camp battles. As you begin or continue to prepare for your respective drafts this fall, it is never too early to familiarize yourself with when players are being selected and who could be over or undervalued. With that in mind, here is how we are handling the 11th overall pick in drafts.
What does ADP say about the #11 overall pick?
The 11th overall pick is the first in our draft pick breakdown series that could be the first or second choice for a team, depending on league size. We operate on 12-team leagues being the new standard, but the advice can still be helpful if you're trying to see how the board may fall at the start of the second round. This is where ADP, or average draft position, can help! ADP takes a look at draft results across popular fantasy football platforms and ranks players based on their average draft slot. ADP can vary based on scoring format, and the three most popular are half-PPR (an additional .5 points per reception), PPR (a full extra point per reception) and standard/non-PPR (no extra points awarded per reception).
According to ADP for standard leagues, you can expect Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley, Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson and Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor to be off the board. This would allow you to draft Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb with the 11th overall pick.
The top 10 is the same in half-PPR scoring formats, albeit in a slightly different order. Rather than taking Lamb at No. 11, ADP suggests you draft Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs. The top nine is the same in PPR leagues, but Diggs is going 10th, allowing Taylor to fall to you at No. 11.
Who should I pick at #11 in PPR?
If I am picking at No. 11 in PPR leagues, I am going to ensure that Jefferson, McCaffrey, Ekeler, Chase, Kupp, Kelce, Hill, Taylor, Barkley and Diggs are gone. If they aren’t, I would select them based on the order they are listed. Assuming they are gone, Lamb is the choice. Robinson as a rookie for the Falcons worries me despite the anticipated workload. He wouldn't be a bad choice if you have more faith in him, especially if you want to start with a running back.
Who should I pick at #11 in standard?
The biggest difference between my standard rankings and ADP is that I am notably higher on Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Henry is in for another big year, and Chubb could make a case for the best running back in the league. Both would be considered risky early, but they set you up well if you can grab one of them at No. 11. If they are gone, see who is left over from the ADP order and go that route.