It’s always tough to try and nail down a rookie’s production level, but in the case of wide receiver Jordan Addison, he’s walking into an ideal situation with the Minnesota Vikings. He’ll immediately step into the No. 2 role, and he’s got the potential to lead this year’s rookie class in production.
2023 Fantasy Football: Jordan Addison Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Despite a so-so showing at the NFL Draft Combine, Addison put together an impressive resume on tape. At Pitt in 2021, he rolled up more than 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns with Kenny Pickett throwing him the ball. He transferred to USC last season. With more competition for targets in Southern California, his numbers didn’t stand out, but when you look at his play, you can see why the Vikings drafted him with the 23rd pick this year.
Updated Vikings outlook
One thing we know about the Vikings is that they’re going to throw the ball ... a lot. They’ve got arguably the best receiver in the game right now in Justin Jefferson. Throw into that mix Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, and their No. 3 wideout K.J. Osborn, and it all points to a unit planning to air it out.
Best case scenario
Addison slides right into the No. 2 receiver spot vacated by Adam Thielen. His predecessor saw 107 targets last season, despite having slowed down on the wrong side of 30. If Addison can prove that he’s worth a similar target share, he could easily surpass 1,000 yards. And as long as Jefferson is on the field, he’ll never have to worry about seeing his opponent’s best cornerback or much double coverage.
Worst case scenario
There’s rarely a sure thing with rookies, so it’s possible Addison struggles to adjust in his first season. He could also see Hockenson and Osborn eating up more of the target share, depressing his production with fewer opportunities.
Addison’s an obvious lock-in dynasty leagues, having a solid claim to being the second-best rookie wideout available. And while it’s hard to make a firm prediction about his numbers this year, he’s landing in an ideal situation, ripe to produce. He should be a solid WR3 and even a WR2 with real upside in fantasy football leagues this year.